US unlikely to convince China to join new nuclear arms control agreement, experts say

There is little chance the US could bring China to the table on any nuclear arms control agreements in the short term, despite upcoming leaders’ meetings this year, experts said on Tuesday, as the Trump administration pushes for a trilateral deal including China after the previous US-Russia treaty expired last month.

There is “no shortage of good ideas” for how the upcoming summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could move the world towards ending a nuclear arms race, Thomas Countryman, board chair of the Washington-based Arms Control Association, said during an online briefing. But none of the three nuclear superpowers are taking active steps towards a meaningful negotiation, he said.

“I see very little creativity or initiative in any of the three capitals, Washington, Moscow or Beijing, to pursue new ideas,” he said. “It’s very much about scoring points in an eternal basketball game with no winners to see who can blame somebody else.”

After the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New Start), the world’s last binding nuclear arms control agreement, expired on February 5, Trump floated an “improved” deal involving China. The US president then threatened to resume nuclear testing after accusing China of secretly conducting a test in 2020, which China denied.

Beijing has little incentive to heed Washington’s requests, as international pressure on China declines with Trump’s recent aggression towards Venezuela, Iran and Greenland, Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said at the Tuesday briefing.