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Could thousands of US ‘hellscape’ drone boats mess with PLA plans for Taiwan?

Maybe, analysts say, but there are big barriers to fielding the uncrewed vessels on the scale needed

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Taipei’s military has proposed large-scale purchases of drones and uncrewed boats under a planned special defence budget. Photo: AP
Lawrence Chungin Taipei

Taiwanese analysts have broadly welcomed a new US Navy plan to deploy thousands of uncrewed surface vessels across the Indo-Pacific by 2030, saying it could complicate Beijing’s military planning and strengthen deterrence.

But they also warned that unless Taipei pressed ahead with its own stalled drone fleet ambitions, the approach might offer Taiwan only limited direct benefit, given Washington’s production, logistics and surveillance challenges.

The assessments follow remarks this week by Captain Garrett Miller, who said the US Navy expected to field more than 30 medium uncrewed surface vessels in the Indo-Pacific by 2030, alongside thousands of smaller drone boats and aerial systems operating from manned and unmanned ships.

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The plan reflects a broader push by US Indo-Pacific Command to build what Admiral Samuel Paparo has described as a “hellscape” – saturating contested waters with autonomous systems to deter or blunt any mainland Chinese move against regional targets, including Taiwan.
For Taiwan, the idea carries obvious appeal – the self-ruled island faces a widening naval imbalance with mainland China, whose fleet has expanded rapidly in both size and reach.
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Cheap, expendable uncrewed vessels could help raise the cost of blockade or attack scenarios by forcing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to track and engage far more targets, defence officials noted.

But analysts in Taipei said geography and industrial reality could limit how much of that capacity would actually be available around Taiwan.

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