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Amber Wang

Satellite imagery shows that Philippine military bases open to US troops have expanded more slowly than expected, according to a Chinese think tank.
In a report published on Thursday, the Beijing-based South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) zoomed in on the nine sites covered by the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) between the two treaty allies.
It said the sites reflected Washington’s efforts to transform the Philippines from a “strategic rear” into a “forward hub” for operations aimed at countering China.
The nine EDCA sites comprise five facilities originally designated under the agreement and four additional locations announced in 2023, including three in northern Luzon near Taiwan and one on Palawan facing the South China Sea, where tensions between Manila and Beijing have risen in recent years.


According to the report, the network of bases forms a strategic posture that “locks the Taiwan Strait from the north and controls the South China Sea from the south”.
Beijing has repeatedly criticised the expansion of US access to the Philippine military facilities, arguing that it heightens regional tensions.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States and the Philippines, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
Experts argue that US access to the Philippine sites close to Taiwan is intended to interfere with a potential attempt by the People’s Liberation Army to seize the island by force.
Drawing on satellite imagery, the report assessed construction progress across all nine EDCA sites.
At Lal-lo airport in Cagayan province, one of the four sites announced in 2023, the report said satellite imagery showed expanded aircraft aprons and additional buildings despite limited official disclosure of the project’s development.
The report also examined Naval Base Camilo Osias, the northernmost of the nine EDCA sites, located about 400km (248 miles) from the southern tip of Taiwan.
Planned construction of the base included a new pier, runway repair, a command-and-control integration system, a dining facility, and a humanitarian assistance and disaster response warehouse, all intended to support broader military and humanitarian missions, the report noted.
However, the report said visible infrastructure expansion at the base “currently appears to be limited”, citing imagery.
“The expansion of the EDCA sites has fallen short of expectations, and US efforts to strengthen its military presence in the Philippines continue to face constraints,” the report concluded.
It attributed the slower pace to the substantial investment required to prepare the sites for wartime operations, as well as political uncertainty and rising nationalism in the Philippines.
“While some construction has taken place [in those bases], the sites remain a long way from becoming fully established military bases,” SCSPI director Hu Bo said.


The report also noted that the US military presence in the Philippines had evolved into a fully functional, rapidly responsive and tightly coordinated combat-ready military system integrated with multilateral alliances.
At present, the US deployment in the Philippines “has effectively become equivalent to maintaining a permanent military presence” in the country, it said.
However, its presence and deployments would still have limited wartime utility, particularly against a high-end adversary such as China, the report said.


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South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative says base infrastructure expansion ‘has fallen short of expectations’


South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative says base infrastructure expansion ‘has fallen short of expectations’.


Is expansion of Philippine bases for US use on track? Chinese think tank weighs in

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative says base infrastructure expansion ‘has fallen short of expectations’

South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative says base infrastructure expansion ‘has fallen short of expectations’