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Lawrence Ho is betting a lot on Russia. Photo: Edward Wong

Macau casino scion Lawrence Ho bets big on venture in Vladivostok

Macau casino scion's venture in Russian far east banks on attracting high-rollers from North Asia, betting on first-mover advantage

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Casino scion Lawrence Ho Yau-lung is no stranger to games of chance and, like his father - the former overlord of Macau gaming Stanley Ho Hung-sun - knows that the house always wins.

However, as Macau gaming experiences one of its most testing periods ever thanks to the combined effects of President Xi Jinping's anti-corruption crackdown and an economic slowdown on the mainland, Ho junior is making a big move into a gambling venture in a city with a wild-west reputation at least on a par with Macau's.

Lawrence Ho and other investors in his Hong Kong-listed Summit Ascent Holdings are placing their bet on frontier port city Vladivostok in Russia's freezing far east.

They are the first among a number of groups to open an integrated resort in the Primorye Integrated Entertainment Zone on the outskirts of the city.

The emerging casino zone is Russia's attempt to attract gamblers from North Asia who would otherwise balk at the extended flying times to Macau or the new casino resorts in the Philippines.

And while convenience is among its major drawing cards for an estimated 400 million people within a two-hour flight radius, Russia is also hoping to showcase some of its own unique selling points - from winter sports to the rich architectural history of Vladivostok.

The push to develop the 600-hectare site has the full backing of Russian President Vladimir Putin. He thinks it can help forge closer ties with China and kick-start growth in an underdeveloped and remote region.

While the Putin narrative in the West is dominated by sanctions and alleged Russian expansionism, in the East growing Sino-Russian cooperation involving oil, gas and now tourism is the focus. But a Hong Kong-listed company must make a risk-benefit calculation when investing in a Russia led by a man who has been marginalised within the Group of Eight.

For Ho, it's all about first-mover advantage.

Sands Macao burst on to the Macau scene in May 2004, becoming the first rival of Stanley Ho's SJM Holdings, and the rest is - a very lucrative - history.

Sands boss Sheldon Adelson reportedly earned back its entire US$265 million construction cost within nine months of opening. Other casino operators would follow, but few casino bosses seemed to gain quite the stature of Adelson, who would later make pioneering casino moves in Singapore, to great success.

Ho junior's gamble on Russia might also have something to do with the complex political relationship between Washington and Moscow, a fray above which he can hover. With 29 per cent, Ho owns the controlling stake in Summit Ascent, a venture with Russian and Taiwanese equity.

His Scottish CEO of Summit Ascent, Craig Ballantyne, highlighted the group's first-to-market status in the Tigre de Cristal complex during a black-tie opening ceremony on November 11.

"Tigre de Cristal is the first integrated resort in the Russian far east and the largest resort in the Russian Federation and brings world-class standards of service, hospitality and entertainment," Ballantyne said.

The opening gala attracted government dignitaries and around 1,000 guests, ranging from locals to international visitors from mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea.

Speaking at the opening ceremony, vice-governor Sergey Nehaev of the Primorye Region said: "Tigre de Cristal has made history by being the first integrated casino to open in what will be a unique entertainment zone.

"In a couple of years we expect to have more casinos, more theme parks, water parks, hotels and integrated resorts."

The Tigre de Cristal complex employs 1,000 staff, many trained at a croupier school in Vladivostok owned by the casino.

The US$200 million first phase of the development features 67 gambling tables, 25 of which are slated for VIPs, 769 electronic gaming machines, spa facilities, two restaurants and a 121-room hotel.

Groundbreaking is yet to get under way for Phase 2, a US$500 million complex, three times the physical size of Phase 1, that will feature "significantly more" non-gambling amenities, slated for completion in 2018.

So far, Ho's gamble appears to be going well. About 1,000 people a day have been streaming into the casino since a soft launch on October 8.

Casino analysts from Citi said it was an "encouraging start" for the often-delayed project, which had seen its official opening pushed back by nearly a year.

The gambling hub will rake in US$410 million in 2016, rising to US$1.7 billion in 2020, according to Citi estimates.

Compared with Macau, which is pegging its future hopes on the growing mass-market middle class, things in Russia are more old school.

About 80 per cent of the casino's revenues should be coming in the form of earnings from the VIP segment, according to Citi - dwarfing Macau, which even during its heyday saw casinos derive an average 67 per cent of earnings from private rooms run by independent junket operators that extend credit to gamblers.

Eric Landheer, director of corporate finance and strategy for Summit Ascent, said the casino had an agreement with a Macau junket operator to manage the 25 VIP tables. Payment settlement with the junket operator will be done in Hong Kong.

Junket operators in Macau are faced with a higher level of scrutiny from mainland officials, including what some say is pressure to disclose the identities of Chinese high rollers as part of the anti-corruption drive.

"They would not lack in appetite to pursue opportunities in underdeveloped northern Asia," Landheer said. "North Asia is a unique value proposition."

Still, today's welcoming attitude by Russian authorities is a major U-turn from only a few years ago.

In 2009 the Kremlin began a nationwide closure of casinos as part of efforts to crack down on organised crime.

Symptomatic of the excess at the time, about 550 gambling dens were operating in Moscow, many of which were dingy, smoke-filled rooms with a handful of slot machines. The Russian capital had 30 higher-end neon casinos located in prime districts of the city.

Five years after the ban was put in place, more than 61,000 gambling dens were closed nationwide. Moscow's effort to wipe out gambling started in 2006 when Vladimir Putin, as president, signed a federal law that restricted all gambling-related activities except bookmaking into four Las Vegas-style "gambling zones" across the country.

These zones were located in remote areas, with the view that they could be used to facilitate growth in under-invested areas. Critics of the movement said the zones wouldn't work. At the time, they pointed to the US$40 billion cost of development, lags in construction, and the loss of jobs and tax revenue from the closure of existing casinos as reasons.

More recently, attitudes towards the replacement zones have been turning more positive. Last month, Russian authorities announced that foreign visitors would be allowed to enter and stay in Vladivostok and the surrounding "free port" zone for up to eight days without a visa as of January 1.

The move is a breakthrough for a Russian administration that had extended previously extended special entry rights solely to mainland Chinese. The timing of the approval also bodes well for Lawrence Ho, who will have the only operating casino in the territory come the new year.

Construction work has yet to break ground on a competing casino project by the Cambodian casino company NagaCorp.

The group, which has a listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange, is planning a HK$2.7 billion integrated resort slated to open in 2018.

Citi analysts said the first-mover advantage - while it lasts - would make the Tigre de Cristal more than twice as profitable as the new casinos in Macau's Cotai.

But will gamblers really want to venture to the remote reaches of Russia, where the temperature this weekend was set to fall to minus 14 degrees Celsius?

Jamie Soo, an analyst at Daiwa who has visited Vladivostok, believes it's more a case of "build it and the gamblers will come".

Only time will tell if Ho's gamble was right.

Ambitious casino city plan in Russian far east could well pay off

Russia has big ambitions with the launch of a new "Primorye" super casino city that bears a resemblance to Macau before its new casinos even get off the drawing board.

The plans seem outsized, overly ambitious, even difficult to imagine coming to life for a region that has yet to prove itself as a popular tourist destination.

That's even before taking the frigid weather into account, with the mercury set to drop to low of minus 14 degrees Celsius in Vladivostok this weekend.

Will the Russian far east really attract the 8 million annual visitors to its casinos, ski hills and other activities in the "Integrated Entertainment Zone" (IEZ), as the government hopes?

Yet overcoming the sceptics is something that has worked well, at least in Macau, where a wave of casino construction transformed what some had labelled a seedy backwater into the world's biggest gambling hub by revenue in less than a decade. Could the same experience be in store for the casino hub of the north?

Casino analysts who have trekked up to the 600-hectare site, 50km from Vladivostok and situated along the seafood-rich shores of the Sea of Japan, have mostly come away as believers.

Local authorities have leased out 12 sites that will eventually be developed into integrated resorts, with construction expected to wrap up in 2022.

The government is planning to spend 55.6 billion roubles (HK$6.5 billion) on projects that include infrastructure upgrades and other amenities.

Already a new bridge is helping to ease traffic in Vladivostok, and a new terminal at the international airport will help speed visitors to the casino strip about 20km away. Over time, it's expected that 20,000 people will be directly employed by the casinos, or as many as 30,000 if indirect employment is factored in.

A local university will turn out 1,000 skilled hospitality workers to help meet the labour demands. Other benefits include addition tax revenue to the federal government.

Russian authorities are keen to get the project rolling, pledging an annual 3.3 billion roubles in tax holidays for investors, according to the Development Corporation of Primorsky Krai, the state entity that oversees development of the site.

Analysts are optimistic that a northern gambling hub could work. Residents in northern China on the whole can't be bothered to make the trek to Macau, traffic patterns show.

Beijing-area residents accounted for less than 2 per cent of mainland visitors to Macau in 2012. Even fewer visitors from China's northernmost provinces are likely to make the journey, according to Citi.

"We believe the IEZ in Primorye could be a better alternative for the northern Chinese," Citi analysts said.

Meanwhile spending by local Russian gamblers is not to be underestimated.

Russians have a "relatively high inclination to gamble", Goldman Sachs said.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Ho rolls the dice on US$700m Vladivostok gamble
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