Analysis | Taiwan’s president-elect Tsai Ing-wen has dilemma as Panama invites her and President Xi Jinping to same ceremony
Chance of the two leaders having an informal meeting during the event is ‘almost zero’, analysts say
Taiwan’s President-elect Tsai Ing-wen faces another sticky situation after the island’s long-time Latin American ally Panama invited both her and mainland China’s President Xi Jinping to the inauguration of the Panama Canal’s expansion one month after she assumes office in May.
Taiwan’s first female president Tsai Ing-wen warns China after landslide victory
Analysts said while the possibility of a Tsai-Xi meeting was almost zero, the political meaning behind Panama’s invitation was worth considering as it was no secret Panama had long been keen to build up official ties with Beijing.
They warned that poor handling of the situation might deal Taiwan yet another diplomatic blow and sour cross-strait ties that have become warming since President Ma Ying-jeou, of the mainland-friendly Kuomintang, was elected in 2008.
Panama, one of only 22 allies that still maintain official ties with Taiwan, said on Friday it had invited leaders cross the Taiwan Strait to attend the event because “this is the inauguration of the expanded canal, and mainland China, as an important user, needs to attend”.
Beijing is waiting for Tsai to declare her cross-strait stand during her inaugural speech and if she is unable to provide an answer acceptable for the mainland side, we cannot rule out the possibility that [mainland] China might try to woo Panama to teach it a lesson
Taiwanese officials, including those from the outgoing Kuomintang government and the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which will soon replace the KMT as the government in May, have supported the idea that Tsai attend the event.
They said as an official ally it was Tsai’s obligation to consolidate ties with Panama, and her participation in the event as the island’s first female president would also sharply increase Taiwan’s international presence.
Beijing, which sees Taiwan as a Chinese province awaiting eventual unification, has reacted frostily to the invitation, although it is the second top user of the canal and has made big investments in Panama.
In response to the possible Tsai-Xi meeting, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei merely said: “What I want to point out is that China has always had the “one China” principle as a fundamental precondition for handling and developing relations with countries around the world.”
Analysts said the chance was almost zero.
“It is still too early to talk about such a meeting as we don’t even know whether [Xi] will attend the event,” said Wu Yongping, deputy dean of the Institute of Taiwan Studies at Beijing’s Tsinghua University.
“What is more important is Tsai has yet to clearly define her stand” over the one-China principle, making it unlikely for such a meeting to take place, Wu said.
Tsai and her pro-independence DPP crushed the mainland-friendly KMT in both the presidential and parliamentary elections.
Why Beijing has no desire to turn the screw on Tsai Ing-wen and threaten stability across the Taiwan Strait
It is still too early to talk about such a meeting as we don’t even know whether [Xi] will attend the event
Although Tsai has vowed to maintain the status quo and peaceful development of cross-strait relations, she has refused to accept the one China principle Beijing has insisted is a must if the two sides are to continue talks and exchanges.
Philip Yang, director of Taipei-based Taiwan Association of International Relations, said top mainland leaders tended to avoid any meeting with their Taiwanese counterparts at international events over the concern that it would create the impression of “one Taiwan, one China”, or “two Chinas”.
He said Panama’s invitation to Xi – made after Taiwan’s former ally Gambia rebuilt ties with mainland China earlier in March – might signal its willingness to ditch Taipei for Beijing.
“Beijing is waiting for Tsai to declare her cross-strait stand during her inaugural speech and if she is unable to provide an answer acceptable for the mainland side, we cannot rule out the possibility that [mainland] China might try to woo Panama to teach it a lesson,” Yang said. “If that is the case, Taiwan would see its diplomatic space squeezed further and cross-strait relations would be at stake.”
