Carbon emissions might have peaked in China, study finds

China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell from 2014 to 2016 and might already have peaked, according to a study published on Monday, with structural economic changes allowing Beijing to meet targets earlier than expected.

China vowed before the Paris climate talks in 2015 to bring CO2 emissions to a peak by “around 2030”, and the country’s top climate official, Xie Zhenhua, has already said it could meet the pledge ahead of time.

But the study, published by Nature Geoscience, said “in retrospect, the commitment may have been fulfilled even as it was being made”, with emissions hitting a record 9.53 gigatonnes in 2013 and falling in the next three years to 9.2 gigatonnes in 2016.

While emissions rose by an average of 9.3 per cent per year from 2000 to 2013, China’s economy underwent a “structural break” in 2014, and was shifting to less carbon-intensive high technology sectors, it said.

“Unless there is a significant amount of change – a large government intervention like the stimulus package of 2008 – then China’s emissions will stabilise and gradually go down,” said Dabo Guan, a professor of climate change economics at the University of East Anglia, one of the authors of the study.

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In May, environment group Greenpeace estimated that China’s CO2 emissions rose 4 per cent in the first quarter of this year after increasing 2 per cent last year, adding that “backsliding” on earlier progress could this year result in China’s biggest annual rise in emissions since 2011.

“I would have genuinely wanted it to have peaked in 2013, but given the increase in 2017 and first few months in 2018, I am cautious,” said Wai-shin Chan, head of the climate change department at HSBC, adding that coal consumption remained a major component of China’s energy mix.

But Guan said calculations for 2017 were incomplete and failed to take into account rising coal quality, efficiency improvements or land use changes that could have taken more CO2 out of the system.

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An early Chinese peak in CO2 emissions would bolster arguments that the Paris agreement is too lenient on the country, an argument made by US President Donald Trump when he vowed to withdraw from the deal last year.

Guan said it was clear the original target of “around 2030” was conservative, but the ultimate issue was not when China peaked, but at what level.

“Even if we peak in 2019 and 2020, if it reaches 13 gigatonnes it would also be a disaster,” he said.