How standing up to Xi Jinping could help Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen come back from the political dead
- Tsai’s firm rebuff of call to start unification talks on ‘one country, two systems’ model helps revive her approval ratings
- To win next year’s election she will not only have to fight off the opposition KMT but also internal party critics such as former premier William Lai
To win next year’s election she will have to fight off a challenge both from inside her Democratic Progressive Party, in the form of former premier William Lai Ching-te, before facing off against an opposition heavyweight such as Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu or Foxconn billionaire Terry Gou.
Various opinion polls had put Tsai behind all her prospective challengers since she stepped down as DPP chairwoman after a heavy defeat in November’s local government elections that saw the party lose control of eight cities and counties, including its former stronghold of Kaohsiung.
“No one thought she could make it back in the race after the DPP’s crushing defeat in November, but the proposal by Xi helped her get back on track, as voters admired her courage in safeguarding Taiwan’s sovereignty,” Fan Shih-ping, professor of political science at Taiwan Normal University, said on Monday.
According to two opinion polls released by the Taipei-based Cross-Strait Policy Association and the United Daily News on Monday to mark the third anniversary of Tsai’s presidency, her approval rating has risen to 41 per cent and 34 per cent respectively, up from lows of 39 per cent and 20 per cent.
“Since Tsai sternly rejected Xi’s call, she has started a series of measures to safeguard Taiwan’s sovereignty,” said Lin Ting-hui, deputy secretary general of the Taiwanese Society of International Law.
“These include working closely with the US to counter security threats and disinformation from China, and increasing the defence budget to counter Beijing’s military expansion and intimidation.”
Beijing considers Taiwan a wayward province that must be returned to the mainland fold, by force if necessary.
It has suspended official exchanges and talks with the self-ruled island since Tsai took office and refused to accept the one-China principle as a basis for talks on reunification.
In addition to staging war games on Taiwan’s doorstep, it has also wooed away five of the island’s last diplomatic allies and has pressured international companies to change their websites so the island is designated as a Chinese province.
Doong Sy-chi, director of foreign policy studies at Taiwan Thinktank, said Xi’s proposal in January to start talks under the “one country, two systems” model – previously used to reunify Hong Kong and Macau with the mainland – had only heightened the Taiwanese people’s resentment.
The Chinese Communists are always the best campaign aide for the DPP
The Cross-Strait Policy Association’s poll showed that close to 60 per cent of respondents in Taiwan disapprove of how Beijing has treated the island in recent years.
“This proves that the Chinese Communists are always the best campaign aide for the DPP,” Fan said. “The stronger the pressure applied to Taiwan, the better the chance for the DPP to win the elections.”
Speaking in Taipei to mark the third anniversary of her inauguration, Tsai stressed that she did not seek provocation.
“But since January, by openly bringing up the proposal of cross-strait unification under the one country, two systems formula, China has left us no more ambiguity or room for manoeuvre,” she said, adding that this has forced her government to “firmly and clearly declare our stand” and defend Taiwan’s sovereignty.
Tsai admitted that she had also suffered by pursuing unpopular labour and pension reforms, but said if she did not have the courage to pursue them in her first term, she would not be able to do so in her second.
The KMT, however, has criticised her for doing nothing for Taiwan or its sagging economy, and accused her of spending her time on political witch hunts instead.
