Why there is only a remote chance of a repeat of China’s Tiananmen protests
- Beijing exerts a tight grip over society through police, jailing of pro-democracy advocates and controls on community groups
- But the country might not be as stable as the authorities claim, a former student leader says
A sophisticated system of social control built on advanced surveillance technology, public apathy and stifled civil society mean that China is highly unlikely to see anything like the 1989 Tiananmen Square demonstrations again, according to analysts and former protest leaders.
Observers said that in the last three decades, the Communist Party had gone to great lengths to ensure that its rule would not be challenged.
That includes expanding the budget for public security over the years, with 179.78 billion yuan (US$26 billion) earmarked for public safety this year.
China also has a 1.5 million-strong, well-equipped paramilitary People’s Armed Police (PAP) force to maintain domestic stability through disaster relief, crushing social unrest and countering terrorism.
That contrasts with 1989, when the People’s Liberation Army’s lack of experience in handling mass demonstrations resulted in it firing live ammunition rather than rubber bullets at the protesters.
Over the decades, the PAP, which is responsible for domestic security, has learned to use various equipment from tear gas to riot gear to contain unrest, making the use of live ammunition against civilians unlikely.