Taiwan’s minor political parties could play a major role in upcoming elections

Crowded race for the legislature could skew victory chances for independence-leaning DPP and mainland-friendly KMT

Latest poll shows Tsai Ing-wen on course for a second presidential term, on the back of an anti-Beijing campaign

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The latest polls show incumbent Tsai Ing-wen on course for victory in Taiwan’s presidential election next month. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 12:00pm, 8 Dec 2019Updated: 11:42pm, 8 Dec 2019

While the latest polls suggest incumbent Tsai Ing-wen is on course to win a second term in Taiwan’s presidential elections in January, conditions may be less favourable for her ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the race for the legislature, according to analysts.

The rise of a number of new political parties and the prospect of more than 1 million young people eligible to vote for the first time could dash hopes of a parliamentary majority for both the DPP and its main rival, the mainland-friendly Kuomintang (KMT), they said.

In a poll released by the TVBS television network on Tuesday, Tsai had 46 per cent of the vote, while KMT candidate Han Kuo-yu, the populist mayor of Kaohsiung who swept to power on an anti-DPP wave in last year’s mayoral elections, had 31 per cent.

KMT presidential candidate Han Kuo-yu is hoping to replicate his success in last year’s local government elections. Photo: Reuters

The DPP’s disastrous showing in the local government elections was largely blamed on Tsai’s unpopular domestic policies but since then her political fortunes have improved on the back of a well-orchestrated campaign that the self-ruled island could be taken by Beijing if her opponent wins the top post.

“With Beijing ironically giving Tsai all the necessary ammunition to win back her lost support since the beginning of this year, the KMT can no longer rely on its good fortune,” said Fan Shih-ping, a political-science professor at National Taiwan Normal University.