Beijing braced for 2020 of managing risks, with Xi Jinping’s feared ‘swans and rhinos’ yet to disperse

Chinese president’s warning of potential surprises and threats was followed by a year in which the leadership was both tested and bolstered

Economic headwinds and international scrutiny brought relief measures on critical fronts but a toning down of other initiatives

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Chinese President Xi Jinping warned officials a year ago to expect “black swans” and “grey rhinos”. Photo: AFP

Published: 10:35am, 1 Jan 2020Updated: 8:55pm, 17 Feb 2020

At the beginning of 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping convened a meeting at short notice with hundreds of top officials around the country and warned them of a long list of risks that might jeopardise the rule of the Communist Party.

The list was all-encompassing, including warnings on foreign relations, ideology, the economy, social stability and technology, according to the official reports. The meeting was seen as an indication of the top Chinese leaders’ mounting concerns.

Many of Xi’s warnings proved accurate, some even worse than he had predicted. He warned the officials the year would be full of “black swans”, or surprising events, and “grey rhinos” – highly probable yet neglected threats.

As trade tensions with Washington exploded in 2019, Beijing tiptoed through the year with a strategy aimed at containing the impacts and retaliating against salvoes from the United States, along with a narrative intended to reassure its domestic audience despite a proliferation of tweets and leaks from the White House.

Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He (left) held on-and-off trade talks with the US’ Robert Lighthizer (centre) and Steven Mnuchin throughout 2019. Photo: AFP

In June, millions in Hong Kong took to the streets, first to protest against a controversial bill that would have allowed the extradition of criminal suspects to mainland China, and then increasingly over myriad grievances with Hong Kong’s government and police force. There were regular confrontations involving anti-government protesters, police and pro-Beijing supporters in the second half of the year, as the city was engulfed by its worst political crisis in decades.

Meanwhile, China sparked a huge backlash around the world for its internment and extensive surveillance of mostly Muslim ethnic minority groups in Xinjiang, in the country’s far west. The US House of Representatives passed a bill almost unanimously in September calling for sanctions against Chinese officials on human rights grounds.