Phasing out coal power and meeting climate goals by 2050 ‘totally doable’ for China
- Study suggests ‘low-hanging fruit’ be retired and operating hours of other plants gradually cut by 2050 to keep warming to within 2 degrees Celsius
- With financial support and careful planning it could be kept to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to researchers
China can achieve a sustainable phase-out of coal-fired power and keep climate warming to within 2 degrees Celsius by 2050, or even earlier, without a serious economic impact, according to a study of the energy sector.
Meeting a more ambitious goal of keeping warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius along with a coal-fired power phase-out was also feasible, the study found, but it would require meticulous planning and financial support to retire the plants.
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“This report shows that a sustainable coal power phase-out in China is possible, by rapidly retiring the low-hanging fruit and gradually reducing the operating hours of the remaining [coal-fired power] plants,” said Jiang Kejun, a co-lead author of the study and senior researcher with the government-backed Energy Research Institute.
He said the study used bottom-up data from the plants and was the first of its kind in China.
“It turns out that phasing out coal-fired power generation is not as hard as we thought, and it is actually totally doable,” Jiang said.
Co-author Yang Fuqiang, a senior adviser with the National Resources Defence Council, said the report offered a pathway for when and how China’s coal power industry could come to an end.
“The old path where coal-fired power dominated the power industry doesn’t work any more – you will only end up with more stranded assets if you continue to invest in coal-fired power,” Yang said, referring to power plants that have become obsolete and liable for early writedowns.
He said phasing out coal-fired power now would instead help to rejuvenate the industry.
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The report released on Monday was co-authored by researchers from the University of Maryland’s Centre for Global Sustainability, the Energy Research Institute of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, and the North China Electric Power University in Beijing.
It laid out a three-pronged strategy for China to transition to cleaner energy – by halting construction of new coal-fired power plants, shutting down the inefficient old ones, and moving the remaining coal-fired power generation from base to peak load in the power system.
About 3,000 power plants were assessed for “retirement priority” based on their technical attributes, profitability, environmental impact, grid stability and equity composition. Those power plants make up more than 90 per cent of the power generating capacity listed by industry group the China Electricity Council.
The study found that 18 per cent of existing coal-fired power plants, or a total of 112 gigawatts of generating capacity – those described as “low-hanging fruit” – could be retired in the near term. Those plants were old, small-scale and inefficient generators, or self-use power generators owned and run by enterprises that were not on the national grid. Most are located in northern and northeastern China.
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While the researchers recommended those coal-fired power plants be retired, they said construction of new ones should be halted, and those that remained could continue operating for 20 to 30 years with a gradual reduction in operating hours. That strategy could help to reduce the risk of having stranded assets and ensure the power grid remained stable, and it could also help shift many of the plants from base to peak load in the power system.
The report said China could keep warming to within 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050 if it provided financial support to encourage coal-fired plants to be retired in favour of large-scale renewable energy projects.
The researchers also noted that China had the world’s largest coal-fired power generation capacity and its decisions would have a significant effect on global climate targets.
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China accounts for about half of the world’s coal consumption and it is the biggest greenhouse gas emitter.
Yang said it would be a remarkable transition for China to reduce its coal power and carbon dioxide emissions, and it would also show other countries what could be achieved.
“China’s economic path also sets an example for other developing countries,” he said. “China’s actions can show them that a lot can be done to address climate change.”
