Chiropractor Wang Wei-yang, 40, is one of Taiwan’s undecided voters, and he lamented the lack of focus on economic and social issues in the campaign. “I prefer to have a leader who can really bring us economic prosperity, but apparently neither Tsai nor Han are able to do so,” he said.

“The 2020 election is dogged by political ideologies rather than economic and public well-being issues as it has been in the past and, worst yet, foreign factors like US and China influences have become more obvious this time.”

US Senate passes US$700 billion defence act to support Taiwan, counter China

“With the US throwing its strong support behind President Tsai, the election this time inevitably has been seen as a war between the US and China, which naturally favours a mainland-friendly candidate like Han to be the next Taiwan president,” said Yan Jiann-fa, vice-president of the government-funded Taiwan Foundation for Democracy.

“Beijing perceived the negative impact and tried to offer sweeteners or other preferential treatment for Taiwanese living on the mainland, hoping this could reverse the situation and win support from voters in Taiwan, but apparently such a remedy has not been successful,” Yan said.

In the months of campaigning, concerns have been raised in Taiwanese public debate about the Chinese Communist Party’s pressure on Taiwan, despite Beijing’s attempts to neutralise the issue with 26 measures making Taiwanese more equal to their mainland peers, announced just two months ahead of Saturday’s voting.

Meanwhile, Tsai has touted the “record high” strength in ties between Taipei and Washington, and “the best ever relations with the US” under her administration.

Unpacking the Hong Kong protests factor in Taiwan’s election

Analysts said that although the US-Taiwan relationship was never a key election issue for voters it had been viewed as part of the political stance on cross-strait relations, with Tsai’s supporters generally endorsing her efforts to strengthen ties between Washington and Taipei.

“With Tsai’s administration scoring significant success in US-Taiwan relations in the past few years, Han’s tendency to talk more about relations with China does make some voters feel like this potentially is a decision on Taiwan as a more US-friendly country or a China-friendly one,” said Jeremy Huai-che Chiang, a research associate at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation.

While a Han presidency would not pose a setback to US-Taiwan relations, it could mean a return for Taiwan to a “relatively more middle-ground position” between the US and China, maintaining cooperation with the US and focusing on economic cooperation with China, Chiang said.

Wu Chong-han, associate professor in the department of diplomacy at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, said that amid the US-China trade war, Washington had offered a lot of security commitments to Taiwan, but that was “not necessarily a positive thing for cross-strait relations”.

Wu said the importance of the US for Taiwan was reflected in the “unwritten convention” that Taiwanese politicians held talks with the US before running for president.

“It is known that Taiwan’s political candidates will travel to the US to ‘do interviews’ before they run, and US-Taiwan relations do have a big impact in Taiwan’s elections,” Wu said.

“But while US-Taiwan relations have strengthened under Tsai, this presents a certain level of risk for cross-strait relations, as the US slowly pulls Taiwan in the direction of becoming a diplomatic partner, in terms of what impact it will have on peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

“I would propose that the US government return to its policy of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan from past US administrations … with the prerequisite that relations between Taiwan and the US continue to be strong,” Wu said.

The US$738 billion National Defence Authorisation Act signed by Trump in December included a required review of Taiwan’s security and the military balance between Beijing and Taipei, an emphasis on regular US Navy transits through the Taiwan Strait, as well as a mandated report within 45 days of Taiwan’s elections on “influence operations conducted by China to interfere in or undermine” the election.

David Stilwell, the top US diplomat for Asia, also called on Beijing to not interfere, saying that “the concern always exists for meddling – interfering – in [Taiwan’s] internal affairs”.

Brent Christensen, director of the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto US embassy on the island, said in November that Washington was working with Taipei to combat Beijing’s disinformation efforts through information sharing and by mobilising civil society.

Albert Chiu Shihyi, associate professor of political science at Tunghai University in Taichung, said the passing of US laws regarding Taiwan in recent years had been positive for both Tsai and her campaign, although the benefits had recently been decreasing.

“We have seen attention in the election shift in recent months towards more internal issues,” he said. “Still, the US factor has been, and will continue to be, important in Taiwan’s elections.”

The law bans donations to political parties and the influencing of elections at the instruction of, or with financial support from, “hostile external forces”, referencing Beijing without naming it.

Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council said the Communist Party’s infiltration and interference in Taiwan was “serious and was already a widely known reality”.

“The CCP has accelerated its push in its unification process, differentiating its United Front efforts against Taiwan, which has seriously threatened our country’s safety, society’s order and the ordinary functioning of democracy, and the recent amendment is all meant to safeguard the country’s sovereignty, freedom and democratic order, in order to guide exchange and order,” the council said in a statement.

Taiwan president defends law to curb Beijing influence in New Year address

But the anti-infiltration law has sparked concerns from Taiwanese living in the mainland – and high-profile businessmen such as Gou – that they could be targeted by its provisions.

Lee Cheng-hung, head of the Association of Taiwan Investment Enterprises on the Mainland, said he feared the legislation could “create a serious problem for cross-strait marriages, business, student and academic exchanges as well as cooperation between Taiwan and mainland enterprises”.

The Communist Party has been accused of increasing its grass-roots influence in Taiwan in recent years, including through local media, political elites, businesses and religious organisations. According to Jyan Hong-wei, director general of Taiwan’s department of cybersecurity, the mainland is also believed to be responsible for around half of an estimated 30 million cyberattacks against the island each month.

Taiwan’s main parties warn of disinformation, ‘fake news’ ahead of polls

Recent cases of perceived mainland influence include the indictment of a retired lieutenant colonel and his father on charges of spying for Beijing, as well as the charging of former triad member Chang An-lo – also founder of the Chinese Unification Promotion Party – in August for making illegal gains, with some of his funding originating from the mainland.

For Taiwanese voters, however, the tricky landscape the island must navigate in its relationships with Beijing and Washington has simply been part of their political reality, observers said.

“Taiwan’s well-being could be much better if we can focus more on the healthy development of the nation rather than trying to use the US or China relations to make gains,” said senior accountant James Liu, who has decided not to vote on Saturday because of his disappointment in the performance of all three presidential candidates.

Read the first part in the series, on the role of young and first-time voters, here, the second part, on Han Kuo-yu’s uphill task, here, the third part, on Tsai Ing-wen’s turnaround, here, and the fourth part, on the Hong Kong protests factor, here.