Early figures put incumbent leader Tsai Ing-wen ahead of her main rival Han Kuo-yu in the Taiwan presidential race, according to local television reports. Soon after the official count got under way – as the polls closed at 4pm – broadcaster EBC said Tsai had secured 3 million votes, or 56.6 per cent of the total, while Han had 38.8 per cent. SETN put the early split at 57 per cent for Tsai and 38.6 per cent for Han, while TVBS said Tsai had secured 3.08 million votes against Han’s 2.12 million. The third candidate in the presidential race, James Soong , had less than 5 per cent of the vote, according to the broadcasters. This year’s presidential and legislative elections are set to redefine the island’s political landscape under the shadow of its fraught relationship with mainland China and the ongoing crisis in Hong Kong. Turnout is expected to be higher than the presidential election four years ago, given the fiercely contested race and the good weather. “Many young people have shown up today to cast the ballots compared with the last time, and good weather has also helped induce voters to go to polls,” said Chen Wen-ming, a voting station official in New Taipei City. The turnout rate was 66.27 per cent for the last election four years ago. Tsai Ing-wen of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party was elected at that time with 56.12 per cent of the votes. Hong Kong’s anti-government protests loom large in Taiwan election. But who benefits? Tsai is seeking a second term against Kaohsiung mayor Han of the mainland-friendly Kuomintang party and the perennial presidential contender Soong, the founder and chairman of the People First Party. A higher turnout rate is expected to benefit the DPP, which focused more on the young people and first-time voters, than its rivals. The election will also determine the composition of the island’s parliament, the Legislative Yuan, with 73 constituency seats, 34 for parties and six seats reserved for indigenous Taiwanese up for grabs. The ongoing crisis in Hong Kong, which was triggered by a now-withdrawn bill to allow the extradition of criminal suspects to mainland China, has influenced some voters’ considerations. A man surnamed Chung, in his 30s, said he had been watching the protests in Hong Kong and that was part of his consideration in picking candidates. “I have my own judgment but all I want to say is: I give Hong Kong my blessing. You guys ‘add oil’.” Another voter surnamed Chang said he was also watching the developments in Hong Kong, and was glad he still had the right to vote. “I want to help Hong Kong, but I don’t know what to do. I can only say ‘add oil’ to them,” he said. The election campaign was so fierce that even a 46-year-old man wanted for burglary went to vote in Nantzu in southern Taiwan for his favoured candidates, only to be arrested by police immediately after he exercised his voting rights. The transport ministry had to charter a ferry to take 211 voters from Taiwan island to the offshore island of Quemoy after they were unable to find any other means of returning home to vote. Despite suffering from six broken ribs and a dislocated shoulder caused by a ruby game, former culture minister Emile Sheng urged voters to come out to vote after casting his ballot. Overall, polling was peaceful except for some minor incidents of disorder, including voters tearing up or taking their ballot papers out of the polling station. Casting her vote in Taipei on early Saturday, Tsai urged the electorate to vote. “The weather is nice today. I hope all eligible voters can go to vote and exercise their rights to strengthen democracy in Taiwan. I also hope that the voting procedures will be smooth,” she said after casting her ballot. William Lai Ching-te, Tsai’s running mate, said the election was crucial for Taiwan’s future. A weary-looking Han, accompanied by daughter Han Bing, cast his vote in Kaohsiung on Saturday morning but did not comment. Soong registered his vote at a polling station in New Taipei City. In Taipei, voter Wu Chun-wen, 41, said she came out because it was important to take part in democracy but the economy was her main concern. “I voted mainly for economic factors because I think Taiwan’s economy is not as good as when I was a student,” Wu said. “Hong Kong is not a big factor, but it probably has influenced some young people.” A 74-year-old retiree in Taipei who would only be identified by his surname Cheng said he voted for Tsai and the DPP because he wanted to preserve Taiwan’s freedoms and democracy. He added that he would never vote for the KMT because of the party’s closeness with mainland China. “I was a bit nervous actually, because it seems most people in this district are KMT supporters,” he said. “The Taiwan election is not just about what kind of character you are … It’s about what you will actually do. “I told my son, who did not want to vote, that if he did not go out today to vote I would not leave my house and assets to him, so I think he will go vote to leave Taiwan better for future generations.” Seats in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan are also being contested, with the DPP now holding 68 of the 113 seats. The elections have focused on issues such as sovereignty, democracy and cross-strait issues between Taipei and Beijing – all of which have been amplified by months of anti-government protests in Hong Kong resisting Beijing’s influence . Other key issues include energy policy, same-sex marriage and economic policy. Major surveys in Taiwan indicate that Tsai, who has taken a strong stance against threats from Beijing, has a significant edge over her main opponent Han, who has advocated closer ties with mainland China to end frozen cross-strait relations during Tsai’s administration. The legislature is more competitive, with analysts saying it is less clear whether the DPP can maintain its majority there. In addition to the 73 constituency seats in the legislature elected directly, six seats are also reserved for Taiwan’s indigenous aboriginal population and 34 at-large candidate seats won based on a party vote. Parties need at least 5 per cent of the vote to secure at-large seats. Cheng, the retiree, said he was confident that Tsai would win comfortably but was concerned there was a smaller gap between the DPP and KMT in the legislative races. Beijing considers Taiwan a wayward province that must be returned to the mainland fold, by force if necessary. It has suspended formal exchanges with the island since Tsai was first elected in 2016 and refused to accept the one-China principle. Analysts said that no matter which candidate emerged victorious, the relationship with Beijing would remain a tough issue for the island’s next leader to resolve. “Regardless of who wins the election, cross-strait ties will never be able to return to the time that relations were warm under the presidency of Ma Ying-jeou,” said Simon Chang Teng-chi, professor of political science at National Taiwan University. Taiwanese man wanted for theft votes himself into police custody From 2008 to 2016, Ma of the mainland-friendly KMT, brought eight years of relatively cosy cross-strait ties, crowned by his semi-summit meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Singapore in 2015. Since voting must be done where citizens hold household registration, tens of thousands of Taiwanese working abroad are expected to return to Taiwan to their home districts to cast their ballots. One of those is Chan Yiyun, 27, who works for a biotechnology company in Shanghai. Even though she said she supported Taiwan sovereignty, she planned to vote for Han for his economic policies. “I know the KMT is pro-China, but the DPP is stupid,” Chan said. “Taiwan’s economy is so bad, and its diplomatic work is a disaster. The DPP has been provoking China and other countries are breaking off diplomatic relations with us, one after another. Taiwan will only have a bargaining chip after its economy is boosted.” Beijing more confident than ever of Taiwan reunification, mainland official says Other voters like Harry Fan, a Taipei salesman in his 30s, felt that a vote for Tsai and the DPP would help secure Taiwan’s democratic way of life. “Taiwan’s young people will stand with freedom and democracy, and while some of our older friends may find it difficult to change their political stance, this time us young people will come out [and vote] because over the past few months we have seen the situation in Hong Kong and this has hurt our hearts,” he said. “It seems clear to me that China’s Communist Party is backing certain politicians here. I think that’s dangerous, so I won’t vote for any pro-China party.” Purchase the China AI Report 2020 brought to you by SCMP Research and enjoy a 20% discount (original price US$400). 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