Taiwan elections: Beijing ‘will view Tsai Ing-wen’s victory as setback but not a crisis’
- Mainland Chinese observers do not expect extreme reaction to president’s re-election – but warn Beijing will respond to ‘provocations’ such as moves towards independence
- Cooler cross-strait relations appear likely, but one academic says Beijing has learned how to respond to the swings in Taiwanese politics
Tsai Ing-wen’s victory in the Taiwanese presidential election on Saturday is seen as a setback in cross-strait relations but will not lead to a major crisis, mainland Chinese military analysts and academics have said.
While Beijing will continue to apply pressure on Taipei, it will adopt a wait-it-out strategy instead of resorting to extreme measures in dealing with the self-ruling island, they said.
“There will certainly be more challenges with Tsai’s re-election but that does not mean [cross-strait ties] will fall into a crisis and much will depend on what Tsai will do in the coming four years,” said Ji Ye, associate professor of Taiwan Studies at Xiamen University in Fujian province, which faces Taiwan.
“The mainland will not apply maximum pressure to Tsai unless she takes drastic steps to provoke Beijing such as seeking support from the US and [creates trouble] by taking advantage of the rivalry and competition between China and the US,” he added.
Relations between Beijing and Taipei deteriorated during Tsai’s first four-year terms and last year she rebuffed a suggestion by President Xi Jinping that Taiwan should discuss reunification under the “one country, two systems” model in place in Hong Kong.