China must curb energy demand, create clean supply to hit its Paris climate goal: researchers
- Chinese and foreign researchers look at how aiming to keep the global temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius affects China
- Most models analysed reported China’s coal demand would shrink to near zero around 2050
Chinese and foreign researchers recently assessed what the 1.5 degree goal means for China’s emissions pathway, energy restructuring and decarbonisation, publishing a study in Science journal on April 23.
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“Different organisations have different models based on their structures and mechanisms so sometimes – even if they research the same subject – the results can be very different,” said Duan Hongbo, lead author of the study and a professor with the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing.
“So we want to combine some representative models and analyse the results,” he said.
“For the consistent findings, the results of the multi-model study are more scientific than the single-model study and they are more suitable to be used for climate negotiations or to support the country’s long-term planning,” he added. “For the results with big differences, we need to analyse the reason and be cautious when making policies.”
One of the consistent insights across all models was that the global 1.5-degree limit would require China to cut its carbon emissions by more than 90 per cent by 2050. This was compared with a no-policy scenario in which emissions had been set in 2005 as the baseline without plans for emission-cutting efforts after that.
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Emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse emissions – methane and nitrous oxide – are expected to decrease an average 71 per cent and 52 per cent respectively by 2050.
In the no-policy scenario no cuts would be made but if China wanted to hit the 1.5-degree Celsius warming limit its energy consumption must be dramatically reduced 39 per cent by 2050, the study found. The researchers said most models reported that China’s coal demand would shrink to near zero around 2050.
“The 39 per cent energy consumption reduction may be higher if relative to the business-as-usual scenario, while not the counterfactual no-policy scenario since in the latter case we didn’t consider policies helping to reduce energy consumption from 2005 to 2020,” Duan said.
The researchers also found carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology played an important role in cutting carbon emissions but it could not be the dominant contributor to emissions reduction.
“The largest proportion of the reduction comes from a substantial energy consumption decline, followed by the substitution of clean energy for fossil fuels,” the study said.
“It implies that stringent energy demand control and substantial clean energy development are critical to hit the ambitious climate goal.”
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The study suggests China needs to curb its fossil energy consumption by about 74 per cent in 2050 compared to a case in which there was no policy.
It also noted that China’s pledge to become carbon neutral by 2060 largely accorded with the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming limit, though achieving the latter goal would be more challenging.
While the experts agreed that CCS technology played an important role in achieving near-zero emissions, they disagreed on its percentage of total emission reductions, which varies from 10 per cent to 40 per cent, said Duan.
Carbon capture utilisation and storage technology has been tested in China for about a decade but mainly in demonstration projects by coal mining and oil giant companies such as China Energy Investment Corporation or PetroChina.
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“There are a lot of studies on the CCS technology but the cost is too high. It’s impossible to implement it on a large scale without policy support,” said Jiang Kejun, co-author of the study and a senior researcher with the Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission.
Another major difference across all models was the cost of achieving the 1.5-degree goal. The researchers estimated that achieving costs could vary from 2.3 per cent of China’s gross domestic product by 2050 to 10.9 per cent of GDP.
“The main reason for the difference may come from different expectations for China’s economic growth in different models,” said Duan.
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Jiang said the study provided an academic perspective on the implications of China achieving the 1.5-degree target.
“The 14th five-year plan [2021-25] is a starting period. The study can help us to understand the long-term goal and align them with short-term goals,” he said.
Duan added that it was China’s first multi-model study on the possible pathways to net-zero emissions led by domestic researchers in collaboration with their foreign counterparts.
Duan said the result was helpful for China in its climate negotiations.
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“It is time-saving to buy the copyrights of other countries’ or institutions’ models. It’s like we bought a Mercedes-Benz but we didn’t know how the engine was made,” he said.
“It leaves little room for manoeuvre and is more beneficial for foreign countries in climate negotiations because they know how your results are calculated, and some of the models are not in accordance with China’s reality,” he said.
“We must have our own original models and do more multi-model study to support climate negotiations.”
