Ukraine war lessons make attack on Taiwan unlikely: security chief

The Russian experience is expected to deter Beijing from attacking the island for the next three years, legislators told

But they are warned that any action would be an all-out operation and the Taiwanese defences must remain on guard

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Taiwanese legislators have been told an attack from the mainland is unlikely during the remaining three years of the Tsai Ing-wen (centre) presidency. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 4:04pm, 28 Mar 2022Updated: 5:19pm, 28 Mar 2022

The head of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau said the Russian experience in Ukraine has made it unlikely that Beijing will send forces to the self-ruled island during the remainder of President Tsai Ing-wen’s term.

But Chen Ming-tong warned legislators that the island must not let down its guard, because any attack from the mainland would be an all-out operation.

Chen was responding to questions during Monday’s legislature session on whether the People’s Liberation Army would follow Russia’s lead in Ukraine to attack Taiwan.

Beijing, which considers the island as part of its territory, has been ramping up pressure on the island since Tsai refused to accept the one-China principle. Warplanes fly towards Taiwan almost daily and PLA exercises have been staged near the island.

Wen Yu-hsia, from the main Taiwanese opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT), asked Chen to evaluate the chances of an attack, adding that “even the US Indo-Pacific commander does not rule out the possibility”.

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