Why Taiwan referendum on lowering voting age to 18 has Beijing keeping close watch
- Saturday’s referendum on constitutional change to lower voting and public office candidacy ages to 18 has been labelled ‘separatist’ by Beijing
- Beijing fears poll may lead to more constitutional changes, such as removal of Republic of China title and declaration of independence, analyst says
It will also ask voters to decide whether the minimum age of a candidate running for public office should be lowered to 18, from 23 at present.
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The island’s constitution was passed in late 1947 by the then Kuomintang government on the mainland, who brought it to Taiwan after the KMT were defeated by the Chinese communists at the end of a civil war in 1949.
Titled the “Constitution of the Republic of China” – Taiwan’s formal name for itself – the document contains a significant “one-China” component, as it regards both Taiwan and the Chinese mainland as a part of China.
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“This constitutional amendment referendum has a historical significance in which citizens exercise constitutional review for the very first time,” said Lee Chin-yung, head of the Taiwanese Central Election Commission.
He said the referendum proposal had passed in the third reading by the Taiwanese legislature in March and been handed over to the commission after a six-month publicity period for the holding of the vote.
Taiwan has sought to lower the voting and candidacy ages for more than a decade. However, the ruling and opposition parties failed to reach a consensus until earlier this year, when they agreed to put aside ideological differences to extend civil rights to those aged 18-20.
“Taiwan is one of the few democracies that have yet to go with this popular trend of lowering the voting age to 18,” said Chang Yu-meng, head of the Taiwan Youth Association for Democracy.
Gaining these civil rights would allow young people to make their voices heard, and also encourage them to participate in policymaking, he added.
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However, for the amendment to be ratified, more than half of the 19.24 million electorate – or 9.62 million voters – would have to vote “yes”, according to the election commission, citing a constitutional requirement.
That might be too high a threshold to cross, analysts said.
“With such a number, it would be difficult for the referendum to pass,” said Max Lo, executive director of the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society, a Taipei-based think tank.
He said President Tsai Ing-wen set a record in Taiwan’s voting history by garnering 8.17 million votes when she ran for re-election in 2020.
“Such a record is less likely to be achieved in the weekend’s referendum, especially when a vote like this tends to have a lower turnout,” Lo said.
He said a number of those eligible to vote in the referendum, especially the older generation, did not think it was a good idea for 18-year-olds – most of them still in high school and needing parental support – to be allowed to vote or run for public office.
“They tend to think that high school students are easily swayed,” Lo said.
Michael You Ying-lung, head of the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, said he supported voting rights for 18-year-olds, but did not think allowing them to run for public office like legislators or councillors was a good idea, given their lack of experience.
“If the referendum on the age of candidacy passes, it would be a disaster for Taiwan’s constitutional history,” he warned.
Most opinion surveys so far have shown that less than 40 per cent of Taiwanese voters support the proposal and would even turn up to vote.
Although the poll involves the civil rights of 18-year-olds in Taiwan, it is being closely watched by Beijing, as it concerns changes to the island’s constitution.
Beijing has steadfastly opposed the referendum, with its Taiwan Affairs Office slamming it as a bid to move towards independence.
“The so-called 18-year-old civil rights referendum is a ploy by the [ruling] Democratic Progressive Party authorities, aiming to amend the constitution to pave the way for their separatist attempt,” Taiwan office spokesman Ma Xiaoguang said in Beijing last month.
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Arthur Zhin-sheng Wang, secretary general of the Asia-Pacific Elite Interchange Association think tank in Taipei, said Beijing was concerned that such an amendment might pave the way for other constitutional changes – including removal of the island’s official Republic of China title and a declaration of independence.
“Even if the referendum does not pass, it signals that the Taiwanese authorities have been able to gather the necessary support and dynamic to initiate other constitutional amendment polls, which would intensify the pressure on Beijing,” he said.
Pro-independence campaigners in Taiwan have long sought to either take out the China element in the island’s constitution or simply institute a new one.
