China based Covid U-turn on big economic, social picture, top adviser says
- Epidemiologist says public health was not the only factor at play in the central government’s decision to abandon zero-Covid restrictions
- The virus has spread much faster than expected and more booster shots are needed, he says
“If we purely look at it from a public health perspective, we would have preferred to delay [the new measures] a bit, such as waiting until vaccine coverage is stronger,” Zeng Guang, a senior adviser to the central government on coronavirus control, told a forum in Beijing on Friday.
“However, the central government makes policies based on a range of considerations, such as economic development, social stability, the employment rate and international relations.”
However, the dramatic shift away from zero Covid followed public protests in multiple cities in November, a rare show of widespread grievance against the restrictions.
In the meantime, cases appear to have surged across the country, with economic activity weakening in November, according to the National Development and Reform Commission.
Policymakers will now need to focus on reviving the economy, attracting more foreign investment and helping the private sector.
That was the conclusion of the Central Economic Work Conference, the country’s most important annual meeting.
At the public forum on Friday, Zeng said last week’s decision was a major shift and the virus had spread much faster than public health experts had predicted.
But he said it was unfair to blame the prevalence of the pathogen on the relaxation in the policy because new variants were much more transmissible and the virus spread more easily during winter.
“Meanwhile, [the rapid spread of the virus] also showed it has been too long since the third shots were given and the antibody level of the vaccines in the past is no longer realistic to stop the spread of the virus,” Zeng said.
Most Chinese have received inactivated vaccines. But studies show that immunity provided by the third shot wanes in three months and the antibody levels induced against Omicron are much lower than offered by other types of vaccines, such as mRNA vaccines.
China rolled out a second booster programme this week for people aged over 60 or those with weaker immunity. It has adopted a mix-and-match approach to deliver different types of vaccines to people who had received three inactivated shots.
Only 76.6 per cent of those aged 80 and above have received at least one shot, and 40 per cent have had a booster dose.
China aims to have more than 90 per cent of people aged 80 and above receive at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine by the end of January, sources told the South China Morning Post. In 2020, China had more than 36 million people in that age group.
While official figures do not reflect the scale of infections because compulsory swab tests are no longer required, many cities have already run out of medicine for flu and fever.
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Since the policy U-turn, the Chinese public has complained of a medicine shortage, slow deliveries and long queues at hospitals. In the capital Beijing, the high rate of infection among the public as well as medical workers has put the health system under pressure.
In November, China’s health authorities issued a 20-point guideline to fine-tune the country’s Covid-19 policies, including cutting quarantine time for domestic and inbound travellers. The policies were aimed at minimising disruption to the public and the economy, but have not been consistently implemented.
Authorities also suggested people quarantining at home monitor their health closely, use rapid antigen tests, self-treat with non-prescription drugs and only go to the hospital if symptoms do not abate after a few days. Local governments also followed up with lists of recommended drugs, grass-roots clinics and detailed descriptions of symptoms.