China on track for rapid post-Covid economic recovery in first half of 2023, official forecasts

After some reopening jitters, the country can expect economic activity to come back to life, particularly in the second quarter, Han Wenxiu says

Authorities must also support smaller businesses that have taken a huge hit in the three years of zero Covid, former statistics chief says

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China’s economy is expected to pick up in the second half of next year. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 1:01am, 19 Dec 2022Updated: 2:47pm, 23 Dec 2022

Despite short-term interruptions from reopening, China’s economy will recover quickly in the first half of next year, a senior economic official has forecast.

Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the General Office of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, offered the assessment after Beijing renewed its commitment to get the economy back on track during the annual tone-setting Central Economic Work Conference on Friday.

“The impact of optimising the pandemic prevention and control measures on economic operation will be a J curve,” state news agency Xinhua quoted Han as saying at a conference hosted by the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges on Saturday.

“It will disturb the economy in the short term, but will be a major boon for the whole year.

“It is expected that in the first half of next year, particularly in the second quarter, the resumption of work and normal life will be accelerated, and economic vitality will occur at an accelerated pace.”

He said China’s economic fundamentals – resilience, great potential, vitality and sustainable long-term growth – remained unchanged, and the compounding effects from reopening, and more supportive fiscal and monetary policies would support the economy in 2023.