And the retired military school lecturer, who also advised the mainland province of Fujian on cross-strait exchanges during the last KMT presidency, has good reason to worry.

Not only does the independence-leaning DPP enjoy the benefits of incumbency, it can offer voters a much clearer political identity that appeals to younger voters and a candidate who enjoys relatively strong backing from the party’s power brokers.

Despite its impressive gains in the local elections last November, the KMT has remained mired in internal strife and continued to struggle with its mainland strategy – a dilemma heightened by increasing tension across the Taiwan Strait in recent years.

With less than nine months to go until the presidential election, the party has yet to decide on its candidate.

But waiting in the wings is Han, who was ousted as mayor of Kaohsiung in a recall election after his defeat in the presidential vote, but whose supporters have been agitating for a comeback for months.

Meanwhile, former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je, who now heads the Taiwan People’s Party but is said to be politically close to the KMT, is also considering a run for the presidency.

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Rather than holding a primary or a ballot of its members, the KMT has decided to pick its candidate through a nomination process that considers factors such as public opinion polls, the party’s internal consensus, the ability to integrate the mainland-friendly camp and appeal to neutral voters.

Hou, who was re-elected as mayor last year, is said to be the preferred choice among the KMT’s leaders who organised an internal poll in December to gauge the support for the various contenders, according to a party insider who requested anonymity.

He has also hinted at his willingness to seek the top job. For example, a four-day visit to Singapore two weeks ago when he met deputy prime minister Lawrence Wong was seen by analysts as a prelude to him joining the race.

“The party leaders preferred Hou [to Gou] because the internal poll showed that the mayor has the support of more than 80 per cent of lawmakers and local officials who are KMT members,” the source said. “But the leaders are dragging their feet in dissuading Gou from running.”

Analysts said party leaders were wary about Gou as a candidate since he has no political experience and his extensive investments on the Chinese mainland, where Foxconn has a string of factories making iPhones and other Apple products, would become a liability.

“Gou has no experience as a political leader and has never held any government positions so it is hard to imagine the KMT heavyweights would support him,” said Chi Le-yi, a Taipei-based political and defence commentator.

Speaking on a TV talk show in February, former president Chen Shui-bian also dismissed Gou’s chance of running.

“Taiwan is not the US, where Donald Trump could become the president,” Chen said. “There is no way Gou can explain his myriad business ties with China if he runs.”

Besides picking the right candidate, the KMT also needs to do some serious soul-searching especially with regards to its traditionally mainland-friendly cross-strait policy if it wants to defeat the DPP, according to Yu Xintian, president of Shanghai’s Taiwan Research Institute.

“On cross-strait relations, the KMT has failed to put forward any convincing narrative that can persuade [Taiwanese] people to support its policy,” said Yu referring to the KMT’s ambiguous position on the “1992 consensus”, a tacit agreement that there is only one China but the two sides may disagree on what that means.

“Without a new narrative, the KMT is not going to be able to beat the DPP,” she added.

Beijing insists that the 1992 consensus must form the basis of cross-strait relations and was enraged by Tsai’s refusal to accept it.

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Chang Ya-chung, a retired professor of National Taiwan University, agreed that the KMT needed to break the shackles of the 1992 consensus and strike a new deal with Beijing to define cross-strait relations.

“The KMT can’t just follow the DPP in dealing with the mainland,” Chang said, adding that it must distance itself from the ruling party’s pro-US and anti-Beijing platforms.

“Taiwan shouldn’t be a US vassal and [we] need to tell the Americans that we need defensive – not offensive – weapons to protect ourselves,” Chang said. “These are the messages that the KMT should tell its supporters.”

Chang warned that the KMT, one of the oldest political parties in Asia, risked becoming irrelevant if it lost the 2024 presidential election.

“The KMT may remain Taiwan’s largest opposition party even if it loses,” he said. “But it will wither if it doesn’t work hard to differentiate itself from the DPP.”

But reinventing a 128-year-old political party is easier said than done.

Alexander Huang Chieh-cheng, the KMT’s director for international relations, admitted that it would be an uphill battle and rejected the idea that the party would abandon its mainland roots and goal of reunification.

“Our party’s name is Kuomintang or the Chinese Nationalist Party – not the Taiwan KMT,” Huang said.

The party, then led by Chiang Kai-shek, fled to Taiwan and established an interim government on the island after it was defeated by the communists in the civil war in 1949.

“[We are] a revolutionary party which founded the Republic of China in 1912,” Huang said, referring to the self-ruled island’s official name.

“In reality, the KMT must strive to develop in Taiwan ... and our most important challenge now is our relationship with Beijing and to prevent war from breaking out across the Taiwan Strait.”

Aware of the odds it faces, KMT vice-chairman Andrew Hsia is leading a delegation to Washington this week where he will meet Congressional leaders and visit think tanks to exchange views and seek support.

04:39

Taiwan residents living within sight of mainland China voice concerns over live-fire drills

Taiwan residents living within sight of mainland China voice concerns over live-fire drills

But party stalwart Lee Sheng-li said a mass rally by Han’s supporters in Kaohsiung last week had left him worried that history would repeat itself.

“Han has charisma but the KMT misjudged his influence and let him run [in the 2020 election],” Lee said. “He was irresponsible to run [without completing his mayorship] and this has upset many young voters.”

Lee’s fears that this history could repeat itself may not be unfounded as Kelly Hsu, who runs a small business in New Taipei City, said she would not vote if Hou did run for the presidency despite her family’s traditional support for the KMT.

“People in New Taipei City voted for Hou last year expecting him to complete his second term as mayor,” Hsu said. “I don’t like the idea of him giving up his mayorship [to run for presidency].”

Jay Yan, whose parents are also KMT stalwarts, said he would not vote based on party loyalty alone.

“I am more concerned about whether the candidate can improve the economy and keep peace across the Taiwan Strait,” said the 21-year-old first-time voter from Taichung.

Additional reporting by Amber Wang