Beijing will keep up intimidation, but little chance of a full economic blockade, Taipei official says
- Taiwanese vice-foreign minister Roy Chun Lee says Beijing will pay ‘lip service’ to economic siege, but price of imposing one is too high
- A shelved cross-strait trade pact is likely dead since it is ‘completely inconsistent’ with current economic order, he says
He added that there also seemed to be no chance of revising a cross-strait service trade agreement reached by Beijing and Taipei a decade ago.
Speaking to overseas journalists, Lee said Beijing was not likely to impose an extensive economic blockade against Taipei because such a move would also hurt the mainland.
“I think China will continue to talk about the possibility of an [economic] blockade” against the island, he said, adding that Beijing would continue to signal it would impose such an action to ramp up pressure on Taipei.
That would be the “cheapest way” for Beijing to suggest intimidation against Taiwan, Lee said.
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“Historically a blockade is just a mile away from the military conflict,” he said, adding there were many “loopholes” to break such a siege. Lee did not elaborate.
Aside from the high cost of imposing a blockade, such an encirclement would also cause uncertainty, leading Beijing to “continue to pay lip service” to such an idea rather than implementing it, he said.
Beijing, which views Taiwan as its territory to be brought back under its control, by force, if necessary, imposed partial trade sanctions against Taiwan soon after then-US House speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island last year over what it saw as a violation of its sovereignty.
Most countries, including the United States, do not see Taiwan as a sovereign state but they oppose any unilateral change to the status quo by force.
In April, Beijing started an investigation into trade barriers it said were imposed by Taiwan on 2,455 mainland Chinese products, including food, textiles, minerals, metals, plastics, chemicals and construction materials, and threatened punitive measures.
Taiwanese analysts said the partial measures were the extent of what Beijing could do to ramp up pressure on Taiwan.
Lo said that at the annual Straits Forum in the mainland city of Xiamen last month, the mainland’s top political adviser Wang Huning called for cross-strait economic prosperity, adding that Fujian province should be a showcase zone for “Taiwan’s economic integration into China”.
“This means the mainland has no plan to impose an economic blockade against Taiwan,” he said.
Hsu Tsun-tzu, a senior analyst at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research think tank in Taipei, said partial sanctions against Taiwan “would not affect the overall export performance of the island, since they accounted for no more than 0.5 per cent of Taiwan’s total exports to the mainland”.
It was unlikely Beijing would extend sanctions to Taiwan’s hi-tech products, such as chips, which the mainland urgently needs, she added.
In an interview with Bloomberg in April, Lee, the vice foreign minister, said Taiwan had spent the past two years stepping up efforts to stockpile critical goods and minerals, and introduced new legislation to make the island more resistent to possible sanctions.
At that time, many nations believed that engagement with Beijing would help it transform into an economy that respected the international rules-based order, he said.
Since then, Beijing had increasingly weaponised its economy to achieve political gain through intimidation, Lee added.
“So that is the reason I’m saying that the trade agreement is overdue,” he said.
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The island’s legislature shelved the agreement when it was sent for ratification over concerns that it was not in the interests of Taiwanese companies.
