Taiwan election: KMT’s Hou Yu-ih climbs in polls after collapse of joint ticket, but DPP’s William Lai still leads

Support for Beijing-friendly Kuomintang ticks up despite breakdown in efforts to team up with Taiwan People’s Party in presidential race
Democratic Progressive Party candidate William Lai Ching-te remains the front runner, while TPP’s Ko Wen-je slumps in latest surveys

Taiwan election 2024

Alyssa Chen

Published: 8:44pm, 28 Nov 2023

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The Kuomintang, Taiwan’s mainland-friendly opposition party, saw an uptick in support despite a breakdown in efforts to form a joint ticket to challenge the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, according to the latest polls.

Taiwanese Vice-President William Lai Ching-te, the DPP presidential candidate, is still favoured to win as the January election nears, according to a handful of polls conducted after last week’s dramatic failure by the KMT and the Taiwan People’s Party to form a unity ticket.

Lai received the support of 34 per cent of respondents in a poll conducted from November 24–26 by the mainland-friendly broadcaster TVBS.

KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih and running mate Jaw Shaw-kong came in second place with the support of 31 per cent of respondents, while 23 per cent of respondents favoured the TPP’s Ko Wen-je, another Beijing-friendly candidate.

Other polls conducted right after talks for the KMT and TPP to run on the same ticket collapsed showed similar results, with Hou performing better than expected and the gap between Lai and Hou narrowing.

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A Gallup survey released on Tuesday put the gap between Lai and Hou at a fraction of a percentage point, with Lai slightly ahead at 31.01 per cent while Hou received the support of 30.94 per cent of respondents. Another poll by the KMT-leaning United Daily News released on Tuesday saw Hou lagging 3 percentage points behind Lai.

Hou’s KMT is considered the most Beijing-friendly party among the three camps contending for the presidency in January. In the past year, the party has sent multiple leaders, including vice-chairman Andrew Hsia, to the mainland where they were received warmly by officials who called for close cross-strait ties and joint opposition to pro-independence parties in Taiwan.

Beijing claims self-governed Taiwan as part of its territory and seeks peaceful reunification with the island, but it has not ruled out the possibility of using force.

Most countries, including the United States, do not see Taiwan as an independent state, but many are opposed to a change in status quo by force.

Hopes for the two opposition parties to team up were dashed on Friday morning due to disagreements about who would be the presidential candidate on a unity ticket.

The news has probably left Beijing uneasy, as the opposition’s failure to forge a unity ticket is expected to yield an easier path for a DPP victory.

Beijing has labelled Lai and his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim, Taipei’s former de facto ambassador to the US, as separatists.

Lai has promised to adopt incumbent leader Tsai Ing-wen’s foreign policy approach, aligning closer with Washington and its allies and seeking a higher standing for the island in the international community.

02:28

Taiwan's opposition parties fail to form joint ticket for presidential election

On Friday, Hou and Ko registered to run for president on their own tickets and announced their running mates. Jaw, a well-known media personality and CEO of the Broadcasting Corporation of China, has joined Hou’s ticket as the vice-presidential candidate, while the TPP’s Ko picked legislator Wu Hsin-ying as his running mate.

Zhu Songling, a Taiwan affairs specialist at Beijing Union University, said there were various reasons behind Hou’s rise in the polls, and the pairing of Hou and Jaw helped the KMT consolidate the party’s traditional support base.

Zhu said the pairing of Hou and Jaw had largely satisfied the island’s mainland-friendly voters, who were also pleased by the KMT’s decision to put Han Kuo-yu at the top of its legislator-at-large list, positioning the popular former Kaohsiung mayor to become president of the island’s Legislative Yuan if the party wins a majority of the seats.

“During the process of negotiating the joint ticket, Hou was very humble and courteous, and the public can feel that he was trying his best to form the opposition alliance,” Zhu said. “This works as an additional point for Hou.”

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Meanwhile, support for Ko continued to slump, which Zhu said might be the result of his choice of running mate. Wu is the daughter of powerful businessman Eugene Wu, formerly chairman of Shin Kong Financial Holding Co.

Zhu noted that Ko’s supporters – largely young and educated voters – might be disappointed with the decision to put Wu on the ticket because he had previously said the island’s government should not be controlled by businesses and financial organisations.

Zhu said it remained to be seen whether Hou and the KMT could keep up the good momentum.

“In the near future, whether Hou and the KMT can close the gap will depend on their campaign policy proposals and whether they can attract voters’ ongoing attention by creating and leading the discussion of issues during the campaign period.”