As Taiwan election nears, William Lai is ‘playing safe’ to win over DPP supporters

With the Taiwan presidential election race in the home stretch, Democratic Progressive Party candidate William Lai Ching-te is trying to boost his image by aligning himself more closely with incumbent Tsai Ing-wen. It is a move observers say could tap into the ruling party’s support base and encourage more DPP voters to turn out on Saturday as it seeks an unprecedented third term. A video released by Lai’s campaign office last week – which has had more than 8 million views on social media so far – shows Tsai driving a car, with Lai, the current vice-president, in the passenger seat. They chat about their experience and goals as they drive from the city to a country road before they reach the coast. “You can drive better than me,” Tsai tells Lai after she hands him the key and steps out of the car. Lai responds: “She’s here. We have no problem.” Hsiao Bi-khim, his running mate and the former de facto ambassador to the US, then gets in the car beside him. This video endorsement by Tsai – who will step down after eight years in the top job – has been met with thunderous applause by the tens of thousands of supporters at Lai’s campaign rallies in the past week. “The video – which carries the message of Tsai handing over the baton to Lai – is a hit as it has attracted a huge number of viewers,” said Chen Fang-yu, a political science professor at Soochow University in Taipei. He said the mockery and criticism it had drawn from Lai’s rivals suggested its message was “tremendously persuasive”. Lai, from the independence-leaning DPP, has been ahead in the polls for months. But his two opponents – New Taipei mayor Hou Yu-ih, from the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang, and Ko Wen-je, the former Taipei mayor from the Taiwan People’s Party – have narrowed the gap in the past few weeks and observers are expecting a close race. Washington watchful of ‘unpredictable’ Beijing response to Taiwan election Lai has faced criticism over the legality of his family home, in an old coal mining area north of Taipei, while younger voters have turned away from him because of the government’s failure to address the income gap, stop inflation or make housing more affordable. Seizing on Lai’s support for the island’s independence – when he was mayor of Tainan, and as premier in 2017 – his political opponents have framed the election as a choice between war or peace. Lai has repeatedly said during the campaign there was no plan to declare independence since the island “is already a sovereign, independent country called the Republic of China” – Taiwan’s official title. But he stands a “better chance” in the election with Hou and Ko failing to form a joint ticket to challenge him, according to Huang Huei-hua, a senior researcher at the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society, a Taipei think tank. A proposed deal between the KMT and TPP fell through in November after the two sides could not agree on who should top the joint ticket. Huang also believed there was “no strong consensus” among voters to stop the DPP from being re-elected. She said Tsai’s supporters were likely to be more willing to vote for Lai and he was trying to capitalise on that and “playing safe by promising to follow Tsai’s policies”. “One indicator in the race is whether a candidate has official endorsement from the United States,” she said. “After all, we are closer to the US than to China.” Tsai has received bipartisan support from the US as she seeks to build stronger ties with Washington. Huang said Lai had emphasised “sovereignty and security” during the campaign, calling it a “choice between democracy and authoritarianism” – a script in line with the US stand. Lai has said Taiwan would lose its sovereignty and would be unable to maintain its security if either of his “pro-Beijing” rivals were elected, a claim rejected by Hou and Ko. They have said that electing Lai could bring war to Taiwan given his pro-independence stand, a claim Lai has also refuted. Beijing sees Taiwan as a part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. It has suspended official exchanges with Taiwan and intensified its military activities around the island since Tsai was elected president in 2016. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons. Why does Taiwan matter so much to both mainland China and the US? Observers said that while a conflict across the Taiwan Strait was unlikely in the near term, Lai could face stronger pressure from Beijing if he is elected. Kou Chien-wen, a professor of political science at National Chengchi University in Taipei, said Beijing would “become more wary” if the DPP was re-elected and would “closely watch every move by Lai”. He said whoever was elected would have a chance for their policies to be “better understood by Beijing” in the period between the election and the presidential inauguration on May 20, and doing so could “avoid further deterioration of cross-strait ties”.