‘How far and how fast’ will president-elect William Lai go to push Taiwan further away from mainland China?

William Lai is known to be headstrong and pro-independence. The question is whether he will eventually resort to drastic cross-strait actions

While analysts are not sure Lai would heed caution, they say the loss of legislative majority will be a deterrent against any constitutional moves

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Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen flanked by Vice-President William Lai and his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim at a campaign rally in New Taipei City on election eve. Photo: Reuters

Published: 12:03pm, 19 Jan 2024Updated: 3:36pm, 19 Jan 2024

Taiwan’s president-elect William Lai Ching-te has pledged to continue the diplomatic policies of incumbent Tsai Ing-wen, including those related to Beijing and Washington.

However, Lai’s background shows there is a clear difference between him and Tsai, even though they belong to the same independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

Lai, serving as vice-president under Tsai, is known to be a headstrong politician who will not relent in his pursuit of what he believes is right. But whether he will eventually resort to drastic cross-strait moves remains uncertain, according to analysts.

This is especially so as the DPP’s loss of legislative majority in a parallel vote on Saturday makes it almost impossible for Lai to pursue constitutional independence.

Beijing warned against a Lai victory from the start, labelling him a “troublemaker” over his hardline pro-independence stance and framing the presidential vote as a choice between war and peace across the Taiwan Strait.

“He is and will be ‘presumed guilty’ of pursuing Taiwan independence by China,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Programme at Stimson Centre, a Washington-based think tank.