No risk of war before new Taiwan president takes office but Beijing to keep up coercion drive, island’s spy chief says

Peaceful reunification still preferred but Beijing will ramp up efforts aimed to intimidate, Taiwan’s security bureau chief says

Goal will be to create impression of imminent war to scare Taiwanese into accepting ‘unification and co-prosperity’, Tsai Ming-yen tells lawmakers

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Taiwan’s Vice-President William Lai will be sworn in as the island’s next president on May 20. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 7:00pm, 11 Mar 2024Updated: 7:24pm, 11 Mar 2024

Taiwan’s intelligence chief sees no “risky signal” of a cross-strait conflict ahead of the inauguration of William Lai Ching-te, the Taiwanese president-elect described by Beijing as an “obstinate separatist”.

However, this did not mean Beijing would go easy on Taiwan, cautioned Tsai Ming-yen, head of the self-governed island’s National Security Bureau.

Rather, it was expected to continue to strengthen its carrot-and-stick approach to pressure Lai in the run-up to his inauguration on May 20, Tsai told lawmakers on Monday.

“Presently we do not see any risky signal that could catalyse a war [in the Taiwan Strait]”, Tsai said when asked to analyse the cross-strait situation after the close of Beijing’s “two sessions” – annual meetings of its national legislature and top political advisory body.

Tsai said his bureau had shared intelligence with foreign governments about the chances of a potential cross-strait conflict, and “close discussions” with them had also indicated no signs of imminent war.

Cross-strait tensions did flare last month after two mainland fishermen died during a chase by the Taiwanese coastguard, “but no exceptional tensions are found presently”, Tsai said.