Taiwan Strait may face ‘political tsunami’ in 2025 but young hearts can save the day: mainland China journal

Election of William Lai has sparked cross-strait ‘uncertainty’ that may worsen if Trump returns to power, article in Taiwan affairs journal says

But Beijing has room for leverage, authors say, as Lai’s DPP has lost legislative majority and young Taiwanese are fans of mainland social media

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William Lai Ching-te celebrates his victory with running mate Bi-khim Hsiao and supporters, in Taipei on January 13. He takes office as president on May 20. Photo: AP

Published: 6:56pm, 19 Apr 2024Updated: 7:06pm, 19 Apr 2024

Political risks across the Taiwan Strait were likely to spike next year but younger Taiwanese could still be won over on social media, observers in mainland China said in a recent article.

According to the article in Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies, a mainland journal focused on Taiwan affairs, a period of “instability” and uncertainty” has set in since self-ruled Taiwan chose independence-leaning candidate William Lai Ching-te to be its next president.

Lai, the sitting vice-president from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, was elected on January 13 with nearly 40 per cent of the vote, in an election framed by Beijing as a choice between war and peace.

Lai might adopt “low profile” and “moderate” cross-strait policies after taking office next month, and was unlikely to declare “de jure Taiwan independence” any time soon, the article said.

But, in the long term, Lai might bring “high” risks such as decoupling with the mainland economy, and even “very high” risks of “causing major accidental incidents” in the strait, it added.

Co-authored by Wang Zhenwei, director of the politics department under Xiamen University’s Graduate Institute for Taiwan Studies, the article also warned of “extremely high” risks of a re-elected Lai “colluding” with the United States and Japan.