Will Cheng Li-wun’s meeting with Xi Jinping temper cross-strait ties?

The high-profile talks between leaders of the Communist Party and the Kuomintang are a step towards cross-strait stability despite the KMT’s opposition status in Taiwan, according to observers. Communist Party chief Xi Jinping and KMT chairwoman Cheng Li-wun met in Beijing on Friday in the first such talks between the sitting leaders of the two parties in nearly a decade. Analysts in mainland China and Taiwan broadly agreed that the encounter signalled a revival of cross-strait engagement mechanisms, though they differed on its implications. Zhu Songling, a professor at Beijing Union University’s Institute of Taiwan Studies, said the core achievement of Cheng’s trip was reaffirming the political foundations for dialogue – adherence to the “1992 consensus” and opposition to Taiwan independence. The 1992 consensus refers to a verbal understanding reached in that year between the then-ruling KMT and Beijing that both sides agree there is “one China”, but have different interpretations of what that means. Zhu said the visit helped rebuild a multilevel communication framework “spanning from the grass roots to high-level leadership, particularly between the Communist Party and the KMT”. “It also sent a clear signal to both Taiwan and the international community … that the visit aligns with mainstream public opinion on the island calling for peace, development, exchange and cooperation,” he said. At Fudan University, Xin Qiang, a professor of American studies, described the meeting as marking the resumption of institutionalised high-level dialogue between the two parties after a decade-long pause. The last meeting was between Xi and then-KMT chairwoman Hung Hsiu-chu in Beijing in 2016. Xin said the visit had two signalling effects – it bolstered the KMT’s narrative of cross-strait unity and peace, while also projecting stability to the international community. “If the mainland were preparing for imminent war, why would an arrangement like Cheng Li-wun’s visit take place?” Xin said. However, he cautioned against hopes of a breakthrough in the near term, noting that the KMT was not in power. “No matter how much goodwill the KMT shows, or how much sincerity the two parties have for cooperation, the executive power remains in the hands of the DPP,” Xin said, referring to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. To see these ideas put into action, “one may have to wait until a [KMT] return to power in 2028”, he said. Xin added that while limited exchanges could continue, their scope would likely remain constrained under the present administration, and tensions could quickly resurface if Taipei pursued policies Beijing viewed as provocative. Zhang Wensheng, a professor of Taiwan studies at Xiamen University, agreed, saying Cheng’s proposal for a cross-strait peace framework was “not impossible”, but meaningful progress on cross-strait ties would depend on the KMT returning to power. “At present, the KMT is an opposition party,” Zhang said, adding its proposals involving institutionalised political arrangements between the two sides of the strait could be explored and discussed, but not implemented until KMT regained power. Across the Taiwan Strait, Wang Hsin-hsien, a professor of East Asian studies at National Chengchi University in Taipei, said Xi’s remarks from the meeting were relatively moderate, referring to the 1992 consensus without explicitly mentioning “one China”. “That is a softer approach, and more favourable to the KMT,” he said, adding Beijing was likely calibrating its messaging to influence Taiwan’s internal politics and shape a stable environment ahead of an expected meeting with US President Donald Trump next month. Wang said Cheng’s visit appeared to have been “approved at the highest level in Beijing” and could serve as a “bargaining chip” on Taiwan-related issues, while also boosting Cheng’s personal standing within the KMT. “It is a plus for Cheng herself … though the benefits for the party are less clear,” he said. Liu Chin-tsai, an associate professor of public affairs at Fo Guang University in the eastern county of Yilan, said the meeting could have a “double-edged” effect, potentially strengthening the KMT’s reputation as a capable manager of cross-strait relations while exposing it to accusations of being too close to Beijing. “The core debate is whether this is promoting peace through exchanges, or being co-opted through exchanges,” Liu said. He added that the issue was likely to become ammunition for the DPP to attack the KMT and its candidates in Taiwan’s local elections in November. However, Wang Kung-yi, head of the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society in Taipei, said it would not be easy for the DPP to accuse Cheng of siding fully with the mainland, given that her positions – such as support for the 1992 consensus and peaceful cross-strait development – were long-standing parts of the KMT’s approach. “Therefore, Cheng’s meeting with Xi is unlikely to significantly affect the KMT’s electoral prospects in November. After all, cross-strait issues are rarely the focal point in local elections,” Wang added. The DPP disagreed, with party secretary general Hsu Kuo-yung saying that any dialogue must “serve Taiwan’s interests”, or risk harming the island. Taiwanese deputy foreign minister Chen Ming-chi said Cheng should convey what he described as mainstream public opinion – that Taiwan’s future “must be decided by its people” and that Beijing should “stop military harassment”. In contrast, KMT members framed the talks as a necessary channel to reduce tensions. Taichung mayor Lu Shiow-yen, a potential KMT contender for the 2028 leadership race, said dialogue could “increase understanding and lower the risk of conflict”. And Taipei mayor Chiang Wan-an said communication was essential at times of heightened tension. Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China, to be reunited by force if necessary. The United States, like most countries, does not recognise Taiwan as an independent state. However, it opposes any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with defensive weapons.

Will Cheng Li-wun’s meeting with Xi Jinping temper cross-strait ties?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}It largely depends on Cheng’s Kuomintang regaining power in Taiwan, analysts say

It largely depends on Cheng’s Kuomintang regaining power in Taiwan, analysts say