Social distancing flattens coronavirus curve in US, but relax with caution, researchers warn
- Study shows sharpest drop in worst-hit states after restrictions imposed after 12-day lag due to virus incubation period
- Lead author warns the measures stabilised the spread but predicts infections to start rising again as rules are relaxed
A study by data scientists and health experts from three universities in America and Britain found that controls on movement in the US significantly slowed the time taken for the number of coronavirus cases to double in all but three states. The research, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, was published on preprint server Medrxiv.org on April 30.
Schools and businesses in the US have been closed since mid-March but states are under growing pressure to get their economies moving again after the unemployment rate rose to 14.7 per cent in April, its highest since the Great Depression in the 1930s.
New daily infections doubled every 100 days after physical distancing began, compared with every 3.3 days before the intervention, according to the team of data scientists, engineers and public health experts from Cornell University and the University of Rochester in the US and Lancaster University in northern England.
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The researchers found the sharpest drop in new infections in some of the hardest-hit states – New York, New Jersey and Michigan – after the measures were imposed. But they warned the virus would continue to spread, albeit at a slower pace.