Production of Covid-19 vaccine could top 16 billion doses, but delivery is still a challenge
- Manufacturing limits, a nation’s health care system and intellectual property rights could all affect which countries receive vaccines and how quickly
- Of 16 billion doses manufacturers expect to make next year, over 8 billion have already been committed to countries
But failures and setbacks are standard in the vaccine industry, and such projections could be cut by more than half, according to another estimate made last month.
Which experimental vaccines do eventually make it past approval and off assembly lines at scale will have a profound impact on who gets vaccinated and when, as large amounts of some companies’ supplies have already been claimed by rich economies, or have been pledged to lower and middle income economies.
Meanwhile, a global plan to equitably distribute doses is still in the process of securing shipments and funding. Some countries say intellectual property rules will hinder them from using their own manufacturers to make up for any shortfalls. Others do not have the infrastructure to deliver certain vaccines, even if they arrive next year.
All this sets up the potential for a wide disparity in early access to vaccines for the global population, and health experts around the world are concerned.