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The new strain has sent London and other parts of the UK into lockdown. Photo: AP

What we know so far about the new coronavirus strain found in Britain

  • The genetic mutation is probably more easily transmitted than earlier strains prompting a UK travel ban in dozens of countries
  • But so far there is no evidence to suggest it is more deadly and scientists are hopeful that vaccines will still work
The discovery of a new and probably more transmissible variant of the coronavirus in Britain has sent London into lockdown, sparked dozens of travel bans, and set off a scientific scramble to understand this new strain.

Scientists are racing to understand key questions about this Sars-CoV-2 variant: does it change how the virus spreads? does it cause more severe disease? and will the much-anticipated vaccines that are just starting to be rolled out worldwide still work?

More time and research is needed to better understand this variant and its implications, but this is what we do know.

What is this new variant of the novel coronavirus?

Scientists in the UK say the new strain – known as the “first variant under investigation in December 2020” (VUI – 202012/01) or B117 – has been spreading rapidly in the country and appears to be more easily transmitted.

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Variants emerge regularly because viruses naturally mutate, but so far in the pandemic this has not been a major driver of change in how the novel coronavirus spreads or causes disease.

“We now have high confidence that this variant does have a transmission advantage over other virus variants that are currently in the UK,” Peter Horby, chair of the government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) said in a briefing Monday.

02:47

UK government on the new coronavirus variant: Vaccine response should be adequate

UK government on the new coronavirus variant: Vaccine response should be adequate

Preliminary reports estimate this increase in transmissibility is between 40 and 70 per cent. Whereas an infected person in Britain was previously infecting 1.1 other people, that rate has now risen to between 1.5 and 1.7.

This may be caused by genetic mutations affecting the virus’s spike protein, which attaches itself to human cells.

The strain was detected in southern England last month. Photo: Bloomberg

Researchers are also investigating an unrelated variant recently identified in South Africa that shares one of these mutations.

Is it more deadly or does it cause more severe disease?

So far, there is “zero evidence” that it does so, according to a briefing from Mike Ryan, the executive director of the World Health Organization health emergencies programme.

But research is ongoing and scientists are studying the virus, infections and hospitalisations to understand if this variant changes symptoms or how sick people get from Covid-19. Mortality is considered a lagging indicator that will need to be monitored in coming weeks to observe any trends, according to Public Health England.

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Scientists who advise the UK government on Monday raised the possibility that the virus could have a higher propensity to infect children, who until now have been less likely to become infected.

“We haven’t established any sort of causality on that, but we can see it in the data,” said Neil Ferguson, a professor and infectious disease epidemiologist at Imperial College London and also a member of NERVTAG. “We will need to gather more data to see how it behaves going

forward.”

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Coronavirus ground zero market still closed in Wuhan, China almost a year since start of pandemic

Will it affect how well vaccines work?

Many experimental and authorised vaccines – including the one by Pfizer/BioNTech already being used in the UK – work by targeting the virus’s spike protein. Because the mutations affect this part of the virus, scientists are working to understand whether there will be any impact on vaccine efficacy.

The WHO said in a statement on Tuesday that there is not enough information available now to say for sure.

But a number of public health experts and officials have sought to assuage public concerns, noting the vaccines are designed to trigger a diverse immune response.
The mutation affects the spike protein, which helps the virus attach itself to people. Photo: AFP

Jeremy Farrar, director of Wellcome, a charitable foundation that has been involved in funding Covid-19 vaccine development, said in a statement: “At the moment, there is no indication that this new strain would evade treatments and vaccines. However, the mutation is a reminder of the power of the virus to adapt, and that cannot be ruled out in the future.”

Where did it come from?

This variant was first noticed in Britain in late November, as government scientists were investigating why infection rates in parts of southeast England were not falling despite national disease control restrictions.

Scientists who specialise in mapping out the family trees of viruses said this “distinct” lineage with an unusually large number of genetic changes from previous variants first turned up in a patient sample from September 20.

03:38

Coronavirus: UK issues toughest Tier 4 Covid-19 restrictions, countries ban flights from Britain

Coronavirus: UK issues toughest Tier 4 Covid-19 restrictions, countries ban flights from Britain

Those researchers, from the Covid-19 Genomics UK consortium, suggested in a recent analysis that that high rate of mutation could have come from an immuno-compromised patient who was “chronically” infected with the virus over a period of several months and given treatment.

Past sequencing of viruses in such patients has shown an unusual number of genetic changes.

What does this variant mean for controlling disease spread?

In an effort to stop the strain from gaining a foothold outside Britain, more than 40 countries have banned UK arrivals, according to a BBC count.

However, the WHO on Tuesday said the VUI-202012/01 variant has been identified in several countries including Australia, Denmark, Italy, Iceland and the Netherlands.

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There is potential for this variant or another like it to become globally dominant due to its evolutionary advantage, Calum Semple, a member of Britain’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, told Sky News on Monday.

But the WHO’s Ryan said that the world had already faced the level of Sars-CoV-2 spread ascribed to the new strain at other points in the pandemic and “gotten it under control”.

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Seeking the invisible: hunt for origins of deadly Covid-19 coronavirus will take scientists to Wuhan

More efficient transmission could have a “big impact on numbers” when so many people are infected, Ryan said, but the virus can still be contained through existing measures.

“That just put the bar up a little bit, it means we have to work harder. Even if the virus has become a little bit more efficient at spreading, the virus can be stopped,” he said.

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