Coronavirus: global death toll could hit 5 million by March, Chinese researchers say
- ‘The development of the pandemic is hard to foresee, but a numerical estimate by modelling can provide some useful information,’ lead scientist says
- In worst case, the number of Covid-19 infections in the United States could rise to 32 million, study says
By the beginning of March, the death toll from Covid-19 could rise to 5 million – from just under 2 million on Thursday – according to figures calculated by a team from China’s Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), People’s Liberation Army and public health research institutes.
The researchers, led by professor Xu Jianguo from the CDC, said in a study published on January 8 in the peer-reviewed journal Disease Surveillance that the Chinese government and the public should brace for more external shocks.
“The development of the pandemic is hard to foresee, but a numerical estimate by modelling can provide some useful information,” Xu said.
While China has largely brought Covid-19 under control, many countries are still dealing with widespread outbreaks partly driven by mutated strains. Some of the mutations are believed to have emerged in communities where herd immunity had already been established.