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Coronavirus pandemic
ChinaScience

Coronavirus: Chinese scientists enhance pandemic prediction with climate data to create early warning system

  • System designers use nitrogen dioxide measurements to indicate whether social distancing is in place
  • The next-gen system will take into account air traffic and environmental factors

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Commuters wearing face masks to help curb the spread of the coronavirus ride on a subway train in Beijing in February 2021. The Global Prediction System predicts new Covid-19 cases will hit a seasonal low in April at about 9.2 million worldwide but then climb to about 14 million cases in July. Photo: AP Photo
Mimi Lau
Chinese scientists have upgraded the world’s first Covid-19 pandemic forecast system to factor in complex climate data for more accurate predictions and the next generation will include input relating to air traffic and natural disasters to further improve its precision.
The “Global Prediction System for the Covid-19 Pandemic” combines dynamic climate statistics with epidemic modelling, taking into account temperature and humidity as well as the effectiveness of government pandemic control measures. The forecast system was developed by scientists from Lanzhou University in China’s northwest. It builds on existing regional epidemic prediction modelling and has been running since May.

The system is currently generating pandemic development forecasts for more than 190 countries. These forecasts would help provide early warning for governments, enabling them to adopt science-based tactics and public health policies to contain the pandemic.

According to the Global Prediction System team, the emission of nitrogen dioxide, a major atmospheric pollutant, has been used to measure the strength of government control measures. An abnormally low level of nitrogen dioxide reflects active social distancing measures in place and is considered a factor that can help curb the spread of the virus.

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Other indicators include the optimal temperature range for the spread of the coronavirus – between 5 and 15 degrees Celsius.

The system relies on real-time public health data, including confirmed cases of infection and deaths, retrieved from Johns Hopkins University’s Centre for Systems Science and Engineering. Meteorological data, such as temperature and humidity collected from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Nasa aid the prediction of how the pandemic will develop.

The system forecasts that new Covid-19 cases will hit a seasonal low in April at about 9.2 million worldwide but then climb again to about 14 million cases in July.

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