How deadly floods in western China could threaten new Silk Road
- Global warming is greening the deserts of Xinjiang as rising temperatures lead to doubling of rainfall over half a century, researchers say
- Scientists warn infrastructure planning and quality standards need to be updated to prepare for ‘lots of water’
The risks of flooding in one of the driest regions on Earth meant quality standards and design of infrastructure should be “updated to include a thought for water, lots of water”, warned the lead scientist of a study published on Monday by Chinese journal Scientia Sinica Terrae. The research team also called for more weather monitoring stations to improve the accuracy of forecasts in the remote region.
Zhang Xiaojian, an atmospheric physicist with Nanjing University who led the study, said some precautionary measures should be taken as soon as possible. “The design and construction of these infrastructure [projects] have not considered flooding. We recently saw as much rain come down in a few hours as would normally [be expected over] several years.”
The belt and road plan is China’s ambitious programme to create a new Silk Road linking Asian, European and African countries with infrastructure construction, trade and investment. In the country’s remote western region of Xinjiang, this has meant a number of massive projects, including bridges, dams, railways and roads.
Urumqi, Xinjiang’s capital, is further from the sea than any other city on the planet. The region’s water supply has traditionally come from mountain snows brought in by westerly winds from the Black Sea and Mediterranean in the winter. Urumqi’s per capita water resources are only about one-eighth of the national average.
But western China, which is known for its deserts – including the Gobi, Asia’s second largest – is greening. Satellite images of Xinjiang show shrinking sands and expanding oases. The amount of summer rainfall has grown from about 100mm (3.9 inches) in the 1950s to 190mm (7.4 inches) in 2019, according to government weather records.
Scientists have been puzzled by where the extra water has been coming from. It has not originated from the west and most of the Indian monsoon to the south is blocked by the Tibetan plateau. Inadequate data from Xinjiang – about three times the size of France with many uninhabitable areas – added to the research challenge, Zhang said, with considerably fewer weather stations than other parts of the country.