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A shopkeeper wearing mask as a precaution against the coronavirus rests outside his closed shop in Prayagraj, India, on Sunday, May 9, 2021. Photo: AP Photo

India’s Covid-19 surge dashes hopes of world reopening at once: Chinese expert

  • Shanghai doctor admits to changing his view, now believing countries will open ‘in a conditional way, within regions, rather than globally’
  • China is imposing strict border measures to ensure coronavirus cases do not enter from neighbouring countries
India’s Covid-19 crisis has cast a shadow on the world reopening and, despite a global ramping up of vaccination, some regions will open borders while others will follow later and in a more limited way, according to a leading Chinese epidemiologist.
Zhang Wenhong, director of the department of infectious diseases at Shanghai’s Huashan Hospital, said he had believed some countries, after sufficient vaccination, would open their borders first and the pandemic would be contained eventually, but the massive surge in India dramatically changed that scenario.

“Our projection on the global epidemic would have been a bit more optimistic, but that time frame now looks like it may have to be extended,” Zhang said in an interview with state broadcaster China Central Television. “It looks like the world may open up in the future in a conditional way, within regions, rather than globally.”

In recent days India has reported more than 400,000 new Covid-19 cases and 4,000 deaths a day, bringing the total number of cases to over 22 million and the death toll to more than 246,000 by Monday. The country’s health system has been overwhelmed and many experts suspect actual death and case numbers to be much larger than those officially reported.

An editorial published in medical journal The Lancet said Covid-19 deaths in India could potentially reach a “staggering” 1 million by August, citing an estimate by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a health research centre at the University of Washington.

Other countries have been sending humanitarian aid to India but Zhang said the help was limited and India still needed to count on itself to contain Covid-19.

“The prevention and control of an epidemic in a country or region depends on three main aspects: the ability of public health governance; the degree of cooperation among the residents; and whether the science and technology can keep up,” Zhang said, referring to the need for ample vaccination before outbreaks and prompt testing and isolation during outbreaks.

“It doesn’t mean the public health experts in India don’t know how [to contain the epidemic], but it can’t necessarily be achieved. We can only hope, pray or wish that Indian people can soon overcome the hurdle.”

India’s coronavirus patients journey to find oxygen supplies, hospital beds

India has administered about 160 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines – one is the locally produced AstraZeneca vaccine and another was developed by Bharat Biotech in India. But only about 2 per cent of the population have received the full two doses. The low proportion of vaccination is far from sufficient to stop Covid-19 transmission in the country.
Soumya Swaminathan, the World Health Organization’s chief scientist, said spread of the more contagious B. 1.617 variant of Covid-19, which was first detected in India in October, may be dodging vaccine protections and contributing to the country’s explosive outbreak.
The dire situations in India and neighbouring Nepal, which saw cases skyrocketing in recent weeks, have put China, which has seen imported cases from India in seven provinces, on high alert for risks of local outbreaks caused by people from overseas.

Respiratory diseases expert Zhong Nanshan called on China to remain vigilant even though it had almost eliminated locally transmitted Covid-19.

“More than a year into the Covid-19 pandemic China, as the world’s most populous country, has withstood the test of the first phase of the pandemic, but we mustn’t ignore that the global epidemic situation is still very serious,” Zhong said via a recorded video message in a hospital management conference in Guangzhou on Saturday.

“The current vaccination rate in China is still not high and far from what is needed to achieve universal immunisation, so we still need to pay great attention to preventing the risk of importing the epidemic.”

In an interview with People’s Daily, Li Lanjuan, a prominent infectious diseases expert at Zhejiang University school of medicine, said: “Our country has a large population, long borders and a high degree of openness with people entering China from overseas all the time, so we still have to keep up epidemic prevention at the borders and never let down our guard.”

As West opens up, Asia’s ‘zero-Covid’ economies face hermit risk

Minister of Public Security Zhao Kezhi last week inspected police stations and border control points in Yunnan province, which borders Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and urged officials to step up border defence and control to prevent Covid-19 being imported.

On Saturday, the southern region of Guangxi introduced specific measures for people returning from India by adding seven additional nucleic tests on top of the required 21 days of quarantine to guard the “southern gate of China”.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Indian crisis ‘may slow’ global border opening
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