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Coronavirus: China says up to 85 per cent of population needs to be vaccinated for herd immunity
- New estimate from CDC expert comes after country reaches milestone of administering 1 billion Covid-19 doses
- Shao Yiming says it is based on transmissibility of the virus and protection rate of jabs
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After reaching the milestone of administering 1 billion doses of Covid-19 vaccine, China has revised up its estimate for achieving herd immunity. A top epidemiologist says 80 to 85 per cent of the population needs to be fully vaccinated – or more than 2.2 billion doses.
It is a big jump from 70 per cent of the population – the level of vaccinations the National Health Commission previously said was needed to reach a “great wall of immunity” in China and the year-end target of the vaccine roll-out.
The new estimate was made on Monday by Shao Yiming, an epidemiologist with the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention and part of the country’s Covid-19 vaccine response team.
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He told state broadcaster CCTV that the higher estimate was based on transmissibility of the virus and the vaccine protection rate.
Herd immunity is reached when enough people have been vaccinated against the virus that local transmission is limited. The estimate is partly based on the reproduction number of the virus – a calculation of how many people, on average, one infected person could pass it on to.
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China’s Covid-19 vaccination drive hits 1 billion mark
China’s Covid-19 vaccination drive hits 1 billion mark
Shao said the coronavirus reproduction number had been put at 3, meaning 66 per cent of the population would need to be vaccinated, according to the formula. But he said that would not be enough given that the vaccines being used in China were not 100 per cent effective.
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