Why weather forecasters failed to predict China’s latest devastating floods
- The Henan authorities were braced for heavy rains ahead of Zhengzhou’s devastating floods – but they expected them to hit another city on a different day
- Meteorological experts say predicting rainfall and extreme weather are two of the hardest things to get right
Weather forecasters had predicted heavy rainfall ahead of the devastating floods that hit central China this week, but issued a warning for the wrong place and wrong time.
Su Aifang, deputy director of Henan’s meteorological service, said on Wednesday that the provincial government had been warned of the risk from extreme weather last Thursday.
But the forecasters had predicted that the heaviest rain would hit Jiaozuo, a city at the foot of Taihang Mountain a day before the worst downpours happened.
Past experience suggested that the wet air from the Pacific Ocean was more likely to rise and form clouds when it hit the 2,000-metre (6,560ft) peak.
On Saturday the local authorities issued a notice warning that Jiaozuo could see up to 500mm (19.7 inches) of rain on Monday that risked “once-in-a-century” floods and relocated some residents from low-lying areas.
Other areas, including the provincial capital Zhengzhou less than 100 kilometres (60 miles) to the south, were told to expect a smaller impact.