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Opinion
As I see it
by Josephine Ma
As I see it
by Josephine Ma
Coronavirus: is China really about to ease its tough border restrictions?
- Zhong Nanshan has listed the prerequisites for the country to reopen, including ‘relatively’ low transmission elsewhere
- Beijing has concerns about how its health care system would cope with a major outbreak, especially in rural areas
Top respiratory disease expert Zhong Nanshan has got people wondering if China is about to ease its tough stand on border restrictions.
In an interview with Southern People Weekly magazine over the weekend, he listed the prerequisites for reopening: 80 to 85 per cent of China’s population would have to be vaccinated against Covid-19, which is expected by year’s end; vaccination rates would need to be high in other countries; and their transmission and death rates would need to be “relatively” low.
The low transmission target is the problem, since it is clear that the vaccines reduce but do not prevent transmission – though they have been found to significantly reduce deaths and hospitalisations.
This has been seen in Singapore, where 80 per cent of the population is fully vaccinated. Soon after it began to ease restrictions and move away from its Covid-zero strategy, infections skyrocketed – one expert has suggested they could hit 10,000 a day in two weeks – though most are mild and asymptomatic.
Singapore is now trying to “buy time” to prepare its health care system by reimposing some restrictions. Whether it can keep the virus at bay and successfully reopen is something that is being closely watched by other countries, like China, that are sticking to a zero-tolerance policy for now.
The United States and many European nations have gone down the path of trying to live with the virus, and they too have seen a spike in transmission and deaths – though high vaccination rates have reduced pressure on their health care systems and kept the numbers manageable.
For China, concerns about how the country’s hospital system would cope with a major outbreak among its vast 1.4 billion population – especially in the rural areas – are a big reason the borders have remained closed. Singapore, in contrast, is a small country with a modern health care system.
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An effective treatment might help convince Beijing to lift its border restrictions. US drug maker Merck last week said its experimental antiviral pill reduced hospitalisations and deaths by half in recently infected people and that it would seek emergency use authorisation for the drug in the US. But it is too early to say if it will be a game changer – more safety and efficacy data is needed, particularly on whether it could cause genetic mutations, though the company has ruled this out.
So when will China reopen? Could be a while yet.
This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: China reopening could be some time yet
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