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Coronavirus pandemic
ChinaScience

Covid-19 lockdowns ‘ill-founded’, had little effect on cutting death rates, Johns Hopkins study finds

  • Reject lockdowns as a ‘pandemic policy instrument’, urges review of worldwide impact led by Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke
  • Describing benefits to society as ‘marginal at best’, paper calls on policymakers to weigh them against costs such as business losses and social unrest

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A sanitation worker sweeps a deserted road during a  coronavirus lockdown in Xian, in China’s Shaanxi province. Photo: AFP
Erika Na
Lockdowns have had little effect on reducing Covid-19 mortality while exacting “enormous economic and social costs”, a study by the Johns Hopkins University has concluded, calling for the rejection of such “ill-founded” policies.
Mandated lockdowns in Europe and the United States only reduced coronavirus-related mortality by 0.2 per cent on average, compared to a Covid-19 policy based solely on government recommendations, according to a review of science literature on the pandemic by three noted European and American economists.

Their meta-analysis also showed there was no broad-based evidence of noticeable effects on Covid-19 mortality from specific measures such as mandated border and school closures, and gathering limits.

03:15

Anti-Covid-19 lockdown protests throughout Europe amid rising cases and increased measures

Anti-Covid-19 lockdown protests throughout Europe amid rising cases and increased measures

The findings, titled “A literature review and meta-analysis of the effects of lockdowns and Covid-19 mortality”, was published in the January edition of Johns Hopkins’ Studies in Applied Economics series.

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“Lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument,” the authors said. “While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted.”

Calling the benefits to society “marginal at best”, the paper called on policymakers to weigh them against the costs, such as business losses and political unrest.

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“[Lockdowns] have contributed to reducing economic activity, raising unemployment, reducing schooling, causing political unrest, contributing to domestic violence, and undermining liberal democracy,” it says.
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