Chinese researchers warn of massive Palau quake in western Pacific within two years
- Quake of magnitude 8.0 or higher predicted to hit southern part of archipelago, the site of a potential US military base
- Warning based on rising Earth stress and other external factors also observed before major Asian quakes, say researchers behind study
The western Pacific island nation of Palau could be hit by a devastating earthquake within two years, a study by Chinese government scientists has warned.
According to a paper published in domestic peer-reviewed journal Progress in Earthquake Science, a quake of magnitude 8.0 or higher could hit the southern part of the Palau archipelago, as stress building up beneath the region for more than a decade was expected to be released before December 31, 2023.
The mainstream scientific research community, however, believes that earthquakes cannot be predicted. Most previous attempts to precisely pinpoint their time, location and magnitude have failed, and a few successful cases are regarded as coincidence.
Ian Main, a University of Edinburgh professor leading its operational earthquake forecasting programme, said one challenge is that the Earth’s physical stress cannot be measured directly. The stress estimates are derived from other data collected by satellites or ground stations using mathematical models, the seismology and rock physics specialist said.
The US – which administered the islands as a UN trust territory for nearly two decades after World War II – is responsible for Palau’s national defence and disaster relief. Last year, the island’s government invited the US to set up military facilities there.