Reaching peak carbon early could save hundreds of thousands of lives in China, study says

Researchers say hitting the target before a 2030 deadline would dramatically reduce the number of deaths caused by PM2.5 particles

Chinese and US researchers conclude that the quicker emissions are cut, the greater the long-term benefits

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The study said that wihout effective measures to tackle emissions, air pollution deaths could reach 7.5 million by 2050. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 10:00am, 2 Mar 2022

Reaching peak carbon emissions before its 2030 target could help China to avoid more 600,000 deaths from exposure to the most deadly small particles over the following two decades, a study has found.

President Xi Jinping set the 2030 target two years ago as part of a pledge to make the country carbon neutral before 2060.

However, researchers from China and the United States led by a team at Nanjing University found that the earlier peak emissions were reached, the larger the long-term benefits.

China is the world’s largest carbon emitter, accounting for one-third of global carbon dioxide emissions.

Though some experts and industry insiders predicted that the country could hit peak carbon emissions around 2025, five years ahead of its national target, research on the social and economic impact of this development is scarce.

The study, published on Wednesday in the journal Nature Communications, estimated the impact on air quality and health of different carbon mitigation pathways.

It found that reaching peak carbon emissions before 2030 in line with the target of limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels could help avoid 118,000 deaths attributable to PM2.5 particles in 2030.