A Shanghai success will not solve China’s Covid-19 policy dilemma
- The massive resources sent to the city may contain the outbreak but can the financial powerhouse afford any further disruption?
- China is looking for an exit strategy but has yet to find a satisfactory formula that keeps the economy running and protects the vulnerable
At the same time, 6,000 workers and technicians were racing to finish a makeshift hospital with 15,000 beds in about a week.
Vice-Premier Sun Chunlan arrived in Shanghai on Saturday with a stern message for local officials – the city must return to zero cases as soon as possible.
It was the latest stop for the Politburo member in charge of the Covid-19 fight, who has been travelling to the country’s hotspots over the past few months with a mission to contain the outbreaks before Omicron spreads like wildfire.
But there is a long way to go, with Shanghai reporting a record 13,354 positive cases on Tuesday – bringing its total to around 70,000 local infections since March 1.
The government’s desperation is understandable. The public’s patience is running thin, resources are stretched, the economy is suffering, and many businesses have come to a halt in China’s financial centre.
The stakes are high. While the government may be able to contain the outbreak, a few undetected cases could easily trigger another surge, raising the question of whether Shanghai can continue to afford occasional disruptions.
The city adopted less restrictive measures than Shenzhen, in an attempt to balance its business activity and is paying the price with a more severe outbreak than the southern economic powerhouse.
China is, of course, looking for an exit strategy, but has yet to find a satisfactory formula. The approval of Pfizer’s antiviral drug for use in the country is a first step, but vaccines are a different story.
In China’s view, reliance on a foreign-made mRNA vaccine would not only undermine the image of its own vaccines, it may also make the Chinese government feel insecure because it wants to ensure self-reliance in all its strategic supplies.
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With all these limitations, China could look to the painful lessons of Hong Kong as a cautionary tale on the importance of identifying clear and cost-effective policy goals.
It is worth noting that 95 per cent of Shanghai’s local cases since March 1 have been asymptomatic, with just 3,328 symptomatic infections and seven deaths recorded, as of Tuesday.
Should China’s policy goals be to reduce deaths and severe cases? And, if yes, what should the government do to protect the most vulnerable?
