Coronavirus: China and Western Australia hailed as pandemic refuges despite lacking geographic advantage

Name: WHO chief says China’s zero-Covid policy not ‘sustainable’
Uploaded: 2022-06-02T04:00:24.000Z
Duration: 2 min
Description: WHO chief says China’s zero-Covid policy not ‘sustainable’

Study published in Risk Analysis journal finds two very different jurisdictions kept mass outbreaks at bay for two years of pandemic

But maintaining and winding down a successful refuge has challenges, and the cost to human health and well-being must be considered, Australian researcher says

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People spend time at a riverside park in Shanghai on Wednesday after the city’s long Covid-19 lockdown was lifted. Photo: Reuters

Holly Chik

Published: 12:00pm, 2 Jun 2022Updated: 5:25pm, 2 Jun 2022

Control of Covid-19 outbreaks in both China and Western Australia show that a place does not have to be geographically isolated to serve as a successful pandemic refuge, according to a new study looking at public health risk management.

Researchers from the United States and Australia said that while Covid-19 was not as extreme as other global catastrophe scenarios for which refuges were commonly proposed, countries considering establishing a refuge for future infectious disease outbreaks should customise their policies to the specific pathogen and define their “refuge endgame” – or how they plan to emerge from refuge status.

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WHO chief says China’s zero-Covid policy not ‘sustainable’

Previous research on global catastrophe refuges has focused on isolated places – such as islands or locations underwater, underground, in ice or in outer space – where some humans can survive extreme disasters to ensure the viability of future generations.

The researchers said China had kept Covid-19 infections low, despite having the world’s longest land border and the largest population, because of its authoritarianism, collectivist culture and home-grown vaccines that reduced harm from the virus.

“China’s case shows that a refuge can be successful despite having significant exposure to the pandemic pathogen, especially for a jurisdiction willing to bear the cost of extensive restrictions on its population,” the researchers wrote in an article published in the peer-reviewed journal Risk Analysis on Wednesday.

“Likewise, China’s case demonstrates the value of pandemic refuges developing capacity to suppress outbreaks and not just avoid them,” Seth Baum, executive director of Washington-based think tank the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, and Vanessa Adams, associate professor in conservation and planning at the University of Tasmania, wrote in the study that covered two years of the pandemic.