Omicron sub-variants latest challenge for China’s zero-Covid policy

BA.4 and BA.5 appear to have a greater ability to escape the protections of vaccination and previous Omicron-caused infections
Scientists say the sub-variants could be more contagious but there is so far no evidence they cause more severe illness

Josephine Ma

Published: 6:00pm, 14 Jun 2022

Why you can trust SCMP

Two sub-variants of Omicron – the highly transmissible version of the virus behind Covid-19 – are heading for dominance, with regulators and scientists monitoring their potential to spark another wave of infections.

The emergence of BA.4 and BA.5 has put pressure on Western countries planning to treat Covid-19 as endemic, because they appear to have a greater ability to escape the twin protections of vaccination and previous Omicron infection.

That means people previously infected with Omicron may not be protected against the sub-variants from the same lineage.

Scientists say the two sub-variants could be more contagious than Omicron, but so far there is no evidence to suggest they cause more severe disease.

But they are spreading quickly. Last week, the US CDC said the two sub-variants accounted for around 13 per cent of the country’s infections as of June 4.

And on Monday, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control warned of a potential surge in coming weeks which could result in more deaths and hospitalisations because of the sub-variants.

What are the implications for China?

In Hong Kong, there should be no room for complacency that its recently controlled fifth wave will provide natural immunity. Equally, the chaos of the surge’s early stage is a clear reminder that attempts to identify and quarantine all infected people are not realistic.

Rather, the government should make it clear from the beginning how it will strengthen protections and improve logistics to treat vulnerable people, including the elderly and those with underlying diseases.

Clear guidelines and assistance with home quarantine for asymptomatic or mild symptom carriers will also be needed.

04:49

Residents in Beijing satellite city protest against Covid rules limiting acess to Chinese capital

The challenge is bigger for mainland China, where a speech by Vice-Premier Sun Chunlan on Monday – calling on the capital Beijing to step up its vigilance against the virus – showed the government will only double down on its zero-Covid policy.

China will hold on to this approach for at least another five months, driven by the imperative of a smooth-running Communist Party national congress in the autumn to formally usher in President Xi Jinping’s third term as the party’s general secretary.

But, with the virus becoming more transmissible, China should start considering ways it can divert more of its resources – which have so far been poured into round after round of PCR tests – to quickly expand capacity to help the vulnerable.

This includes speeding up booster programmes for the elderly, and improving healthcare facilities and manpower to treat the severely ill – along with better protocols and more staffing for aged care homes and community level healthcare institutes – to help the elderly in particular.