China petrochemicals sector likely to miss 2030 peak carbon target, but all is not lost, report says

Current trends and policy direction show it will be 2035 before petrochemicals sector reaches peak carbon, Peking University report forecasts

Renewable energy focus could bring date forward by 10 years and provide strong support for China’s ‘dual carbon’ targets, energy adviser says

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Smoke rises from a petrochemical production complex on the outskirts of Shanghai. Photo: Bloomberg

Published: 10:00am, 28 Nov 2022Updated: 5:47pm, 28 Nov 2022

China’s petrochemical sector may reach peak carbon emissions only by 2035 – five years later than the national target – a Peking University report has found.

However, a low emissions push could help the sector achieve peak carbon as early as 2025, and produce only half of the carbon emissions compared to the baseline scenario by 2060, the report said.

Petrochemicals are used in millions of everyday products, from plastics, detergents, rubbers and fertilisers, to packaging, clothing and insulating materials.

The sector is a key economic pillar and accounts for about 4 per cent of China’s total carbon dioxide emissions. Moreover, unlike other high energy-consuming sectors such as steel and cement where emissions are expected to fall in the coming years, those for petrochemicals are likely to increase over the next two decades due to rising demand.

The sector, therefore, plays a key role in China’s energy transition drive. However, while China’s goal is peak carbon by 2030, current emission trends as well as related policy indicate petrochemicals will achieve this only in 2035, according to a report by the Institute of Energy at Peking University.

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