China caught in a Covid-19 bind as winter approaches
- Most of the country’s vast population lacks natural immunity to virus
- People not prepared psychologically if outbreaks evade restrictions
While many countries brace for a surge in Covid-19 cases this winter as more people gather indoors, analysts said there have been no signs so far of a major uptick in deaths or serious illness.
Two months ago, many scientists began to urge governments and members of the public to be on the alert because winter is usually a bad season for respiratory diseases, but more signs are emerging that this winter in the northern hemisphere will be better than the past two.
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However, China remains a big unknown because it has taken an entirely different course from most other countries in the past two years. When other countries began to relax measures more than a year ago, China opted for draconian measures to seal its borders against the virus and locked up millions of people at home or in quarantine facilities when local outbreaks were found.
Scientists said this winter would not be too bad for most countries because of the immunity imparted by vaccinations and previous infections. But most of China’s vast population does not have any natural immunity and is not prepared psychologically if the virus cannot be contained by unpopular restrictions, something that increasingly seems to be the case.
China is caught in a bind. It wants to reduce the collateral damage caused by its Covid-19 restrictions, but is afraid of major surges in infections and deaths.
That dilemma is going to make this a tough winter for China, even though it is not directly linked to the seasonality of the pandemic.