China’s potentially grim Covid death toll is avoidable, new study says
- China’s pivot from zero-Covid could result in 1.5 million deaths in 6 months, researchers say
- “Flatten the curve” measures could avoid case spikes, ease healthcare system pressures
Public health measures include nonpharmaceutical interventions such as quarantine, maintaining social distancing and wearing masks.
Over the past three years, China has been able to keep infection rates low largely due to these measures. The country has had one of the lowest death rates per capita in the world, according to a Johns Hopkins University calculator.
However, as the highly transmissible Omicron variant became dominant, China’s zero-Covid strategy became unsustainable.
Earlier this month, authorities announced a policy U-turn to ditch pandemic curbs amid growing numbers of outbreaks and nationwide protests against restrictions. Those changes could see Covid-related deaths soar, according to previous modelling studies.
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The new study, which has not been peer reviewed, aimed to evaluate the overall effectiveness of China’s prevention measures by establishing an Omicron transmission model based on pandemic data from Macau, Hong Kong and Singapore in 2022.