Chinese cities pass Covid-19 peak, but rural surge still to come, researchers say
- Scientists say infection wave has likely crested in Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing and Guangzhou, according to mathematical model
- However, cases expected to spike in inner provinces around mid-January as migrants travel home for Lunar New Year
Researchers from Ruijin Hospital and Shanghai Jiao Tong University used a mathematical model based on infections from early October 2022 through November 29 to predict Covid-19 trends across the country.
According to their projections, infections in the urban areas of Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing likely peaked at the end of 2022, while peak infections in Guangzhou had already passed as of late November.
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The research was led by Chen Saijuan, a molecular biologist with Shanghai Jiao Tong University. The team’s findings were published last week in Frontiers of Medicine, a medical journal sponsored by China’s Ministry of Education.
Wu Zunyou, an epidemiologist with the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, said last week that Covid-19 cases in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei province, Chengdu and Chongqing were estimated to have passed their peak.
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Peng Jie, an infectious disease specialist at Nanfang Hospital in Guangzhou, told Nanfang Daily that the number of hospital visits and online consultations had peaked, but he predicted a coming surge in hospitalisations.
“The next peak might be people with underlying diseases and those who need hospitalisation after infection, but an obvious peak has yet to appear,” Peng said.
However, the researchers said real-world conditions were far more complicated than their model. They said it was “reasonable” to speculate the Omicron outbreak might appear in multiple waves, with new local surges possible in late 2023 because of dwindling immunity from vaccination or infection.
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The scientists noted the importance of conducting regular monitoring of variants in the months and years to come.
“Altogether, these preliminary data highlight the need to allocate resources to early diagnosis and effective treatment of severe cases and the protection of vulnerable populations, especially in the rural areas, to ensure the country’s smooth exit from pandemic and socio-economic recovery,” the researchers wrote.
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Other measures such as wearing N95 masks and social distancing should be taken to relieve the pressure on the healthcare system, and the supply of symptom-relieving medication should be ensured to prepare for Covid-19 waves in rural areas and avoid disease and death related to delayed treatment, they said.
The researchers said it was “critical” to record the number of excess deaths, including those who have died from or with Covid-19.
“The timeliness and accuracy of these data are required for up-to-date evaluation and prediction of the trend of the ongoing pandemic to ensure evidence-based policymaking,” they wrote.
