As I see itChinese officials say Covid peak has passed in many places but aren’t so open about death toll
- It is impossible to gauge the true scale of Covid-related deaths because Beijing made it clear it would only count those caused by respiratory illnesses
- Netizens looking to understand the scale of the country’s Covid mortality rely on anecdotal evidence and note the deaths of famed Chinese
Given its transmissibility, it is not surprising the virus swept through the population in less than a month after China relaxed Covid restrictions.
Chinese state media said earlier the basic reproduction number (R0) of the Omicron strains circulating in China was between 10 and 18, meaning without intervention a positive case could infect 10 to 18 people.
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Medics work while hooked up to IV drips during Covid-19 surge in China
A Xinhua article published on Sunday quoted Xu Wenbo, head of the China CDC’s National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, as saying the Covid R0 in China reached 21 – even more transmissible than measles, which supposedly has the highest R0.
However, reaching the peak so quickly is not good news.
Overseas experts have long urged Beijing to devise an exit strategy, especially as figures from other places, including Hong Kong, are available as a reference.
An exit strategy aims to flatten the curve, allowing the virus to sweep across the population more slowly to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The survival rate could be much higher if the sick, especially the elderly, get sufficient care. But that hinges on the available capacity of the healthcare system.
Although China had more time to prepare for a tsunami of cases than other countries, no measures were taken to flatten the curve, partly because the zero-Covid strategy ended so abruptly.