Over 90 per cent of people in Beijing will have had Covid by the end of January, HKU study estimates

Reproduction rate of Omicron variant BF.7 found to have jumped to 3.44 in November – meaning one person with the virus could infect 3.44 others

Researchers say surveillance programmes are needed to monitor spread of the coronavirus and more work should be done to track its transmissibility

Reading Time:2 minutes

An estimated 92 per cent of Beijing’s population of 22 million will have been infected with the coronavirus by January 31, according to HKU researchers. Photo: AFP

Published: 12:00pm, 24 Jan 2023

More than 90 per cent of Beijing’s 22 million population will have been infected with the coronavirus by the end of this month, according to an estimate by researchers from the University of Hong Kong.

About 76 per cent of people in Beijing had contracted Covid-19 as of December 22 and it was expected to reach 92 per cent by January 31, according to the HKU study, published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Medicine on January 13.

For the study, the researchers tracked the reproduction rate of Omicron variant BF.7 in Beijing in November and December, after China first eased and then abruptly abandoned its harsh zero-Covid strategy that had been in place for nearly three years.

The authorities released 20 measures on November 11 to optimise pandemic control, including restricting the scope of testing, reducing the quarantine period for inbound travellers, and simplifying risk classifications from three levels to two.

On December 7, mass testing, lockdowns and centralised quarantine were scrapped, with people who have no or mild symptoms allowed to isolate at home.

There was a surge in cases across the country after the policy changes. The study estimates that the reproduction rate jumped from 1.04 on November 11 to 3.44 a week later – meaning that one person with the virus could infect 3.44 others.

The authors said that since regular mass testing was suspended in late November, it was difficult to assess the transmission dynamics based on the daily infections reported by health authorities.

Select Voice

Choose your listening speed

Get through articles 2x faster

1.25x

250 WPM

Slow

Average

Fast

00:0000:00

1.25x