AI just predicted the price tag for Beijing’s South China Sea ambitions

Computer simulations suggest building and maintaining a logistics network across dozens of islands would cost billions of yuan
Beijing aims to strengthen claims on sovereignty in the disputed waters by promoting economic development, infrastructure

Science

Stephen Chenin Beijing

Published: 2:00pm, 3 Mar 2023

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A research team in China has used artificial intelligence to simulate the construction and operation of a logistical infrastructure network that Beijing plans to build to boost economic activities and sovereign claims in the disputed South China Sea.

The total cost of those facilities would range from 6 to 20 billion yuan (US$870 million to US$2.9 billion) over a decade, depending on the government’s ambitions, according to the computer simulation.

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To save money, China could control as few as 17 small islands, said Zhao Bing, an associate professor at the Transportation Science and Engineering College, Civil Aviation University of China in Tianjin, who led the research team.

But in the most expensive scenario, a Chinese logistics network covered 80 small islands in the Spratlys and Paracels.

In this case, it would cost 20 billion yuan to build new harbours, warehouses and fleets of cargo ships as well as maintaining regular plane services between the Chinese mainland and 20 island airports, said Zhao and her team in a paper published on February 14 in the Chinese journal Operations Research and Management Science.

The logistics network they simulated would enable China to send support personnel and materials to any isle within six hours after a typhoon or other unexpected events, the researchers said.

But calculating the costs of such an endeavour over a vast area presented challenging mathematical problems.

Variables included site selection for a main transport hub, wharf construction size and time frame, determining the types of transport ships and aircraft, plotting transport routes and accounting for variations in cargo storage capacity.

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Zhao’s team said they were inspired by genetic evolution to develop a new AI algorithm that could solve the problems more efficiently than traditional tools.

The existing AI model only considered fixed-wing aircraft for air transport. A version under development will include helicopters, “which can make the situation more complicated”, the team said.

“To meet the production and living needs of the residents of the South China Sea islands, the Chinese government has expanded or built a number of docks and airports in the Xisha [Paracel] Islands and Nansha [Spratly] Islands in the South China Sea in recent years,” the researchers said in the paper.

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“The construction of these transport facilities has laid very favourable basic conditions for the construction of a logistics network in the South China Sea,” they said.

Most islands in the South China Sea are far from the Chinese mainland, but Beijing hopes to strengthen its claims on sovereignty in the disputed waters by promoting economic development, production capacity and quality of life of local residents, according to the researchers.

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“It has become a top priority to build a logistics network that can operate effectively and coordinate various modes of transport,” they added.

There are about 250 reefs and islets in the South China Sea, with nearly 70 of them currently occupied by five claimants, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank based in Washington.

Vietnam has built up about 50 outposts, more than any other country in the region, according to the CSIS.

China ranked second with less than 30 outposts – 20 in the Paracel Islands and seven in the Spratlys.

Other islands are occupied by Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan.